See some notes from Matchdate Six ratings to explain what goes into the numbers. Sort of a late post, but the numbers have to be updated for the NSC preview, so here we are.
- Yes, I’m aware that the ratings don’t match what the MLS Standings say. If you’re curious about those, visit major league soccer soccer dot com.
- Game data comes from American Soccer Analysis‘s outstanding web app. You can see the full table here.
| ∆ | MD14 | Team | POWER XG | POWER G | HFA xG | Offense xG | Defense xG | “Luck” |
| ↔︎ | 1 | Los Angeles Football Club | 1.59 | 0.70 | -0.13 | 0.98 | -0.61 | -0.89 |
| ↔︎ | 2 | Seattle Sounders | 0.58 | 0.41 | 0.51 | 0.22 | -0.37 | -0.18 |
| ↑1 | 3 | Columbus Crew | 0.52 | 0.38 | 1.03 | 0.31 | -0.21 | -0.14 |
| ↑1 | 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 0.51 | 0.02 | 1.33 | 0.41 | -0.11 | -0.49 |
| ↓2 | 5 | New York Red Bulls | 0.49 | -0.50 | -0.53 | -0.02 | -0.51 | -0.99 |
| ↑5 | 6 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 0.39 | 0.13 | 0.62 | 0.36 | -0.03 | -0.26 |
| ↑2 | 7 | New York City FC | 0.34 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 0.01 | -0.33 | -0.22 |
| ↔︎ | 8 | Nashville SC | 0.30 | 0.57 | 0.48 | -0.15 | -0.45 | 0.27 |
| ↓2 | 9 | Minnesota United FC | 0.23 | 0.01 | -0.72 | 0.08 | -0.15 | -0.22 |
| ↔︎ | 10 | Atlanta United FC | 0.19 | 0.19 | 0.56 | 0.20 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| ↓5 | 11 | Fußball Club Cincinnati | 0.18 | 0.48 | -0.82 | 0.31 | 0.13 | 0.30 |
| ↑2 | 12 | FC Dallas | 0.14 | 0.04 | -1.19 | 0.02 | -0.12 | -0.10 |
| ↓1 | 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 0.02 | -0.93 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.31 | -0.94 |
| ↓1 | 14 | New England Revolution | -0.03 | 0.42 | 0.07 | 0.40 | 0.43 | 0.44 |
| ↑2 | 15 | Colorado Rapids | -0.06 | -0.50 | 1.05 | -0.19 | -0.13 | -0.44 |
| ↔︎ | 16 | Chicago Fire | -0.10 | -0.47 | -1.04 | -0.01 | 0.09 | -0.37 |
| ↓2 | 17 | Toronto FC | -0.10 | -0.11 | 0.48 | -0.34 | -0.23 | -0.01 |
| ↔︎ | 18 | Philadelphia Union | -0.11 | 0.27 | 0.59 | 0.22 | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| ↑1 | 19 | Portland Timbers FC | -0.18 | 0.17 | -0.45 | -0.38 | -0.20 | 0.36 |
| ↑2 | 20 | DC United | -0.19 | 0.26 | -0.77 | -0.10 | 0.09 | 0.44 |
| ↔︎ | 21 | Sporting Kansas City | -0.25 | -0.55 | -0.98 | -0.46 | -0.21 | -0.30 |
| ↑1 | 22 | Orlando City SC | -0.34 | 0.13 | -0.17 | -0.12 | 0.22 | 0.47 |
| ↓4 | 23 | St. Louis City SC | -0.35 | 0.64 | -0.84 | 0.14 | 0.49 | 0.99 |
| ↔︎ | 24 | Austin FC | -0.38 | -0.44 | -0.45 | -0.28 | 0.10 | -0.06 |
| ↔︎ | 25 | Real Salt Lake | -0.49 | -0.36 | -0.14 | -0.34 | 0.15 | 0.12 |
| ↑1 | 26 | Montreal Impact | -0.52 | -0.05 | 0.75 | -0.38 | 0.13 | 0.46 |
| ↑1 | 27 | Charlotte FC | -0.73 | -0.38 | 0.97 | -0.30 | 0.43 | 0.35 |
| ↑1 | 28 | Inter Miami CF | -0.77 | -0.12 | -1.08 | -0.56 | 0.21 | 0.66 |
| ↓3 | 29 | Houston Dynamo | -0.80 | 0.00 | -0.06 | -0.11 | 0.69 | 0.80 |
The notes and observations:
- Seattle is still holding onto No. 2… but the (brief) “LAFC and Sounders on top, everybody else chasing” era is over. It will take a long time for anyone to catch LAFC, but Seattle’s just a member of the pack once more after a couple bad results strung together. Losing against the run of play in Austin didn’t harm them, but boy howdy did the Sounders get smacked on xG terms (far worse than they got smacked on the scoreboard, even though one of Vancouver’s goals produced no xG because the Sounders scored it). The flipside is that Vancouver was boosted more than Seattle fell, but I’ve been keeping half an eye on what seems like a pretty good ‘Caps team for a while now.
- Red Bulls’ drop (Montreal has been awful on the road, so a reasonably tight game is not going to impress the opponent-adjusted numbers). Was more meaningful than Columbus climbing – in fact, the Crew’s xG Power number fell slightly, just not as far as NYRB’s. Cincinnati actually also slid a bit as a result of Hell is Real, making out positively on the scoreboard, but getting a little luck against xG to do so.
- Nashville has been an odd duck thanks to game state for much of the year, and this week’s match should have been an opportunity to make that up, trailing from the sixth minute on. That means the fact that NSC mostly treaded water against Charlotte (even though CLTFC is decent at home, a fact slightly obscured on the traditional table because of the awful road performances) is a little worrisome, despite ultimately coming away with the win on the scoreboard.
- St. Louis actually moved down in a 4-0 win. This is incredible, and also because they won by that margin despite an xG deficit of 2.23-1.84(!). In terms of single-game luck numbers, that’s gotta be up there – and is yet another incredible “St. Louis is just OK, but incredibly lucky” data point to keep in mind. An incredibly bad beat for SKC though – even if some of it was game-state wonkiness since STLFC was up by 4-nil before SKC ever took the lead on the xG raceplot. St. Louis still scored four times on under two xG.
- I really thought Miami and Charlotte were gonna have some staying power in the bottom two slots, but Houston getting a 1-1 draw in Dallas… despite getting pasted in xG terms… moves the Dynamo down. That could be considered game-state stuff that isn’t really all that damning for Houston, fwiw.
Club and Country 