Jesús Murillo, you should not complain when you are atop the ratings smh. Mike Meredith/Club and Country
Welcome to a new year of MLS Power Ratings! A quick note on methodology:
- The ratings for each team are an average of gamescores. Those gamescores are an opponent-adjusted (z-score) of offensive and defensive output. I calculate home and away separately and average them, since teams tend to be very different depending on venue – in MLS more than any league in the world.
- The “Power xG” is the above, done with expected goals. “Power G” is the same, with goals scored. Typically, xG is more predictive going forward, G more descriptive looking back. At this early stage of the season, both are going to have some odd outcomes thanks to small sample size, gamestates, etc. “Luck” is the difference between those two. Some elements of “luck” (good goalkeeping) are replicable, others (good finishing, forcing own-goals) may not be.
- Homefield advantage is the difference between the Power xG calculation at home versus away (like, literally just subtracting one value from the other). Offense xG and Defense xG are the component pieces to the Power xG score. You want to have a high number on offense (scoring more goals or creating more/better chances than the average opponent does against the teams you’re playing) and a low one on defense (allowing less).
- Yes, I’m aware that the ratings don’t match what the MLS Standings say. If you’re curious about those, visit major league soccer soccer dot com.
- Game data comes from American Soccer Analysis‘s outstanding web app. You can see the full table here.
|∆||MD6||Team||POWER XG||POWER G||HFA xG||Offense xG||Defense xG||“Luck”|
|↔︎||1||Los Angeles Football Club||0.94||0.53||0.09||0.46||-0.48||-0.42|
|↑2||2||New York City FC||0.78||-0.05||0.16||0.05||-0.73||-0.84|
|↔︎||3||San Jose Earthquakes||0.65||-0.26||1.11||0.62||-0.04||-0.91|
|↑3||7||Los Angeles Galaxy||0.30||-0.24||1.31||0.69||0.40||-0.54|
|↑9||10||Atlanta United FC||0.13||0.43||0.90||0.08||-0.05||0.30|
|↔︎||13||Sporting Kansas City||0.10||-0.43||0.22||-0.19||-0.29||-0.53|
|↑10||14||Vancouver Whitecaps FC||0.07||-0.32||-1.06||-0.02||-0.09||-0.39|
|↓9||15||Fußball Club Cincinnati||-0.01||0.26||-1.33||0.30||0.32||0.27|
|↓8||17||St. Louis City SC||-0.02||0.92||0.36||0.41||0.43||0.94|
|↓2||18||New York Red Bulls||-0.03||-0.55||0.00||-0.42||-0.40||-0.53|
|↑3||20||Real Salt Lake||-0.23||-0.69||0.55||-0.21||0.02||-0.46|
|↔︎||22||Minnesota United FC||-0.25||0.12||-2.94||0.01||0.25||0.37|
|↑4||24||Orlando City SC||-0.49||-0.01||0.13||-0.17||0.32||0.48|
|↓8||25||Portland Timbers FC||-0.60||0.37||-0.45||-0.53||0.06||0.96|
|↓5||26||New England Revolution||-0.68||0.21||0.01||-0.34||0.34||0.89|
|↓2||28||Inter Miami CF||-0.86||-0.31||-0.17||-0.39||0.46||0.54|
With the pretty colors but if you don’t want to click through to the data table:
- We are certainly at the stage of the year where one result can swing things wildly. CF Montreal is probably one of the worst two or three teams in the league, but only moved down slightly because the one home match they’ve played (which accounts for half their Power Rating but 1/5 matches) was good.
- Teams with huge luck values to the positive or negative at this stage are mostly based around gamestate (Nashville moved down precipitously despite winning 2-0 on the road, because the team scored two low-xG chances and let Orlando fire away without scoring for much of the match). NYCFC has outperformed average in each of the four road matches in terms of creation, but is 0-2-2 in those contests.
- Austin FC is very, very bad, and it’s not (really) because Los Verdes have had bad luck. On the flipside, STLFC will probably not be as lucky (including in ways that aren’t captured by the data, such as three goals from backpasses this year!) and slide into a playoff battle as the season progresses.
OK thanks. Talk to ya later!