See some notes from Matchdate Six ratings to explain what goes into the numbers. Sort of a late post, but the numbers have to be updated for the NSC preview, so here we are.
- Yes, I’m aware that the ratings don’t match what the MLS Standings say. If you’re curious about those, visit major league soccer soccer dot com.
- Game data comes from American Soccer Analysis‘s outstanding web app. You can see the full table here.
| ∆ | MD13 | Team | POWER XG | POWER G | HFA xG | Offense xG | Defense xG | “Luck” |
| ↔︎ | 1 | Los Angeles Football Club | 1.71 | 0.87 | 0.15 | 1.04 | -0.67 | -0.84 |
| ↔︎ | 2 | Seattle Sounders | 0.70 | 0.52 | 0.21 | 0.26 | -0.44 | -0.19 |
| ↔︎ | 3 | New York Red Bulls | 0.55 | -0.47 | -0.41 | 0.00 | -0.55 | -1.02 |
| ↔︎ | 4 | Columbus Crew | 0.54 | 0.24 | 1.04 | 0.20 | -0.34 | -0.30 |
| ↔︎ | 5 | San Jose Earthquakes | 0.42 | -0.09 | 1.57 | 0.34 | -0.08 | -0.50 |
| ↔︎ | 6 | Fußball Club Cincinnati | 0.31 | 0.48 | -0.74 | 0.33 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| ↔︎ | 7 | Minnesota United FC | 0.30 | -0.17 | -0.89 | 0.17 | -0.13 | -0.47 |
| ↑2 | 8 | Nashville SC | 0.29 | 0.49 | 0.40 | -0.15 | -0.45 | 0.20 |
| ↔︎ | 9 | New York City FC | 0.28 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.01 | -0.26 | -0.18 |
| ↑7 | 10 | Atlanta United FC | 0.11 | 0.23 | 0.82 | 0.09 | -0.02 | 0.12 |
| ↓3 | 11 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 0.10 | -0.03 | 0.54 | 0.21 | 0.11 | -0.14 |
| ↔︎ | 12 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 0.09 | -0.79 | 0.57 | 0.37 | 0.28 | -0.87 |
| ↑1 | 13 | New England Revolution | 0.02 | 0.56 | -0.13 | 0.43 | 0.40 | 0.53 |
| ↑4 | 14 | FC Dallas | 0.00 | 0.13 | -1.35 | -0.01 | -0.01 | 0.12 |
| ↔︎ | 15 | Toronto FC | 0.00 | -0.06 | 0.24 | -0.26 | -0.26 | -0.05 |
| ↔︎ | 16 | Chicago Fire | -0.01 | -0.38 | -0.72 | -0.02 | -0.01 | -0.38 |
| ↓6 | 17 | Colorado Rapids | -0.06 | -0.44 | 1.19 | -0.17 | -0.10 | -0.38 |
| ↓5 | 18 | Philadelphia Union | -0.19 | 0.08 | 0.32 | 0.16 | 0.35 | 0.27 |
| ↑2 | 19 | St. Louis City SC | -0.25 | 0.41 | -0.58 | 0.05 | 0.29 | 0.66 |
| ↑2 | 20 | Portland Timbers FC | -0.26 | 0.30 | -0.54 | -0.31 | -0.05 | 0.56 |
| ↓2 | 21 | Sporting Kansas City | -0.27 | -0.40 | -0.75 | -0.54 | -0.26 | -0.13 |
| ↑3 | 22 | DC United | -0.30 | 0.13 | -0.89 | -0.16 | 0.13 | 0.43 |
| ↓3 | 23 | Orlando City SC | -0.36 | -0.04 | -0.08 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.32 |
| ↓1 | 24 | Austin FC | -0.49 | -0.48 | -0.77 | -0.32 | 0.17 | 0.01 |
| ↑1 | 25 | Real Salt Lake | -0.50 | -0.36 | 0.08 | -0.32 | 0.18 | 0.14 |
| ↓2 | 26 | Houston Dynamo | -0.61 | -0.06 | -0.28 | 0.01 | 0.62 | 0.55 |
| ↔︎ | 27 | Montreal Impact | -0.65 | -0.14 | 0.94 | -0.53 | 0.12 | 0.52 |
| ↔︎ | 28 | Charlotte FC | -0.76 | -0.42 | 0.91 | -0.32 | 0.44 | 0.34 |
| ↔︎ | 29 | Inter Miami CF | -0.85 | 0.03 | -1.21 | -0.50 | 0.35 | 0.88 |
Some thoughts:
- We haven’t quite reached a stasis, but with 12-13 games played for most clubs, there won’t be as many wild week-to-week swings going forward. That makes the ones that do happen (Atlanta up 7 after pasting the Rapids, and the fall on the other side) all the more notable.
- The three or four teams at the bottom have really separated themselves from the pack in terms of being bad. A couple of them (Miami and Houston) have been ludicrously lucky (including Miami’s last-second consolation goal over the weekend) to obscure a bit of that badness. Montreal was also coming back around a bit before the midweek loss to TFC – and even in that one, the xG numbers weren’t too ugly – and the next couple games may well tell the story of the Impact’s season.
- I believe I mentioned in last week’s post that Red Bulls may climb up the standings quickly (as is often the case when a team is underachieving xG numbers and fires a coach – it’s regression to the mean that makes the new guy look good, even when the team hasn’t changed much). That didn’t kick off in full force, but a draw on ~even xG is at least a “deserved” scoreline, and for a team that has had about seven bad beats (including bad-beat draws), it’s a step in the right direction.
- Aside from Red Bulls and probably Minnesota United, the rest of the top 10 or so feels pretty just in terms of how the teams have played and how the run of play has also reflected on the scoreboard. Further down the table, I would expect St. Louis’s always-imminent slide to continue, albeit with fits and starts (lol “they’ve solved the league” commentary).
Club and Country 