See some notes from Matchdate Six ratings to explain what goes into the numbers.
- Yes, I’m aware that the ratings don’t match what the MLS Standings say. If you’re curious about those, visit major league soccer soccer dot com.
- Game data comes from American Soccer Analysis‘s outstanding web app. You can see the full table here.
| ∆ | MD11 | Team | POWER XG | POWER G | HFA xG | Offense xG | Defense xG | “Luck” |
| ↔︎ | 1 | Los Angeles Football Club | 1.71 | 0.89 | 0.42 | 0.99 | -0.72 | -0.82 |
| ↑1 | 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 0.58 | 0.12 | -0.57 | 0.34 | -0.24 | -0.46 |
| ↑1 | 3 | New York Red Bulls | 0.54 | -0.75 | -0.23 | 0.06 | -0.48 | -1.29 |
| ↑5 | 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 0.43 | 0.08 | 1.94 | 0.38 | -0.05 | -0.35 |
| ↑2 | 5 | Minnesota United FC | 0.40 | -0.03 | -0.67 | 0.17 | -0.24 | -0.44 |
| ↑6 | 6 | Fußball Club Cincinnati | 0.37 | 0.42 | -0.59 | 0.35 | -0.02 | 0.05 |
| ↓5 | 7 | Seattle Sounders | 0.35 | 0.35 | 0.70 | 0.04 | -0.31 | 0.00 |
| ↑2 | 8 | Columbus Crew | 0.33 | 0.27 | 0.24 | -0.04 | -0.37 | -0.06 |
| ↑5 | 9 | Nashville SC | 0.25 | 0.38 | -0.04 | -0.22 | -0.47 | 0.13 |
| ↑3 | 10 | Philadelphia Union | 0.24 | 0.03 | 1.04 | 0.39 | 0.16 | -0.21 |
| ↓6 | 11 | Atlanta United FC | 0.23 | 0.34 | 0.98 | 0.12 | -0.10 | 0.11 |
| ↓4 | 12 | Colorado Rapids | 0.18 | -0.23 | 0.72 | -0.05 | -0.24 | -0.41 |
| ↓2 | 13 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 0.15 | -0.85 | 0.58 | 0.65 | 0.49 | -1.00 |
| ↑2 | 14 | New York City FC | 0.13 | 0.19 | 0.17 | -0.05 | -0.18 | 0.06 |
| ↑3 | 15 | Toronto FC | 0.11 | 0.15 | -0.30 | -0.20 | -0.31 | 0.03 |
| ↓1 | 16 | New England Revolution | -0.03 | 0.65 | -0.23 | 0.39 | 0.41 | 0.68 |
| ↓11 | 17 | Chicago Fire | -0.10 | -0.35 | -0.80 | 0.07 | 0.17 | -0.25 |
| ↓1 | 18 | Houston Dynamo | -0.19 | -0.02 | 0.04 | 0.23 | 0.42 | 0.17 |
| ↑1 | 19 | FC Dallas | -0.23 | 0.08 | -1.31 | -0.12 | 0.11 | 0.31 |
| ↑2 | 20 | Austin FC | -0.24 | -0.55 | -0.83 | -0.19 | 0.05 | -0.32 |
| ↔︎ | 21 | Sporting Kansas City | -0.29 | -0.79 | -0.17 | -0.57 | -0.28 | -0.50 |
| ↓3 | 22 | St. Louis City SC | -0.29 | 0.48 | -0.75 | 0.06 | 0.36 | 0.78 |
| ↔︎ | 23 | Orlando City SC | -0.35 | -0.25 | -0.07 | -0.05 | 0.30 | 0.09 |
| ↔︎ | 24 | Portland Timbers FC | -0.51 | 0.23 | -0.80 | -0.40 | 0.11 | 0.74 |
| ↔︎ | 25 | DC United | -0.52 | 0.04 | -0.32 | -0.24 | 0.27 | 0.56 |
| ↔︎ | 26 | Real Salt Lake | -0.60 | -0.27 | -0.17 | -0.37 | 0.23 | 0.33 |
| ↔︎ | 27 | Inter Miami CF | -0.72 | -0.06 | -1.49 | -0.48 | 0.23 | 0.66 |
| ↔︎ | 28 | Montreal Impact | -0.87 | 0.00 | 0.62 | -0.69 | 0.17 | 0.87 |
| ↔︎ | 29 | Charlotte FC | -0.97 | -0.72 | 1.31 | -0.44 | 0.53 | 0.25 |
Some thoughts:
- LAFC remains a buzzsaw, and considering that’s happened with CCL ongoing is all the more impressive. This is a deep team, but you have to think fatigue catches up at some point – especially since US Open Cup is added to the plate tonight.
- Nashville up a fair amount, but Chicago Fire waaaaay down after what was by far the biggest xG pasting of the season to date – Nashville eclipsed the Fire by 4.26 expected goals, the previous high was Vancouver’s 3.34 margin in the 5-0 win over Montreal.
- Speaking of Montreal: non… horrible? The xG numbers weren’t pretty against Orlando City, but the win was there, and at the very least, the Foot Club is pulling away from Charlotte FC in the xG category and isn’t really half-bad in the actual goals ranks, thanks to decent luck (game-states, goalkeeping, etc.)
- The bottom seven remaining unchanged is pretty incredible, tbh.
- New York Red Bulls have actually been quite good in xG terms, just awful in conversion. The goalkeeping has appeared to be pretty average, but the offense has converted extremely poorly. I don’t know if there’s a system issue at play, but certainly when you fire a coach whose team is underachieving solid xG numbers, historically you see the regression to the mean make the next guy look pretty good for a while. I’m buying short-term Red Bull stock.
Club and Country 