Nashville SC

MLS power ratings: Week 19, 2021

For an explainer, hit up the first edition of the 2021 ratings, and if you have additional queries, don’t hesitate to drop me a line on social media. The full table with all the details you could possibly want lives here.

An important reminder: these rankings are a reflection of team strength, not necessarily results. Over/underachieving quality is not only possible, but probable. Underachieving guaranteed for Chicago Fire, in fact. This disclaimer will certainly not prevent a bunch of dudes with Tom Brady avatars and a… fervent desire to not dispel stereotypes about Boston sports fans from telling me what an idiot I am.

  1. (↔︎) New York City FC 1.11
  2. (↑1) Los Angeles Football Club 0.74
    • LAFC was the stronger team in Atlanta Sunday, but the ability to underachieve expected outcomes is A Problem. From a results-only perspective, LAFC is a comfortably below-average team.
  3. (↓1) Sporting Kansas City 0.67
  4. (↔︎) DC United 0.64
    • Losing the xG battle by a significant margin in Nashville doesn’t harm the rating too much because most teams have comfortably lost the xG battle when visiting Music City. DC became one of just a few teams to do that and actually lose on the scoreboard by an even greater margin.
  5. (↔︎) New England Revolution 0.52
  6. (↔︎) Minnesota United FC 0.50
  7. (↔︎) Seattle Sounders 0.47
    • It seems ridiculous that a 6-2 thrashing on the scoreboard was a good-not-great day in xG terms (though of course game states play into that), and some of it is a simple matter of adjusting for how mediocre-to-poor Portland has been this year.
  8. (↔︎) Nashville SC 0.37
  9. (↑3) Philadelphia Union 0.11
  10. (↔︎) New York Red Bulls 0.09
  11. (↑1) Orlando City SC 0.09
  12. (↓3) Colorado Rapids 0.07
    • Rapids move down despite a healthy road win… that’s because in xG terms, Houston performed almost twice as well as its second-best attacking performance so far this year. Rapids may have stolen one.
  13. (↑2) FC Dallas -0.16
  14. (↓1) Austin FC -0.18
  15. (↓1) Chicago Fire -0.20
  16. (↔︎) Montreal Impact -0.21
  17. (↑6) Los Angeles Galaxy -0.31
    • Huge jump for the Galaxy after spending much of the year near the top of the West despite pretty awful xG numbers. They had a good day in xG terms at Minnesota, and got the finishing luck (or in this case, a strong goalkeeping performance from Jonathan Klinsmann) to continue the run of results.
  18. (↓1) Inter Miami CF -0.31
  19. (↑1) Real Salt Lake -0.38
  20. (↓2) Columbus Crew -0.41
  21. (↓2) Fußball Club Cincinnati -0.41
  22. (↔︎) Atlanta United FC -0.42
  23. (↓2) San Jose Earthquakes -0.46
    • Being held to a draw at home (and essentially a stalemate in xG terms) by Vancouver is not super-good. I think the Caps are really about to turn a corner and play much better, but being one of the clubs to help them with that runway is not preferred.
  24. (↔︎) Vancouver Whitecaps FC -0.49
  25. (↔︎) Toronto FC -0.54
  26. (↔︎) Portland Timbers FC -0.62
  27. (↔︎) Houston Dynamo -0.67

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