For an explainer, hit up the first edition of the 2021 ratings, and if you have additional queries, don’t hesitate to drop me a line on social media. The full table with all the details you could possibly want lives here.
An important reminder: these rankings are a reflection of team strength, not necessarily results. Over/underachieving quality is not only possible, but probable. Underachieving guaranteed for Chicago Fire, in fact. This disclaimer will certainly not prevent a bunch of dudes with Tom Brady avatars and a… fervent desire to not dispel stereotypes about Boston sports fans from telling me what an idiot I am.
- (↔︎) New York City FC 1.11
- (↑1) Los Angeles Football Club 0.74
- LAFC was the stronger team in Atlanta Sunday, but the ability to underachieve expected outcomes is A Problem. From a results-only perspective, LAFC is a comfortably below-average team.
- (↓1) Sporting Kansas City 0.67
- (↔︎) DC United 0.64
- Losing the xG battle by a significant margin in Nashville doesn’t harm the rating too much because most teams have comfortably lost the xG battle when visiting Music City. DC became one of just a few teams to do that and actually lose on the scoreboard by an even greater margin.
- (↔︎) New England Revolution 0.52
- (↔︎) Minnesota United FC 0.50
- (↔︎) Seattle Sounders 0.47
- It seems ridiculous that a 6-2 thrashing on the scoreboard was a good-not-great day in xG terms (though of course game states play into that), and some of it is a simple matter of adjusting for how mediocre-to-poor Portland has been this year.
- (↔︎) Nashville SC 0.37
- (↑3) Philadelphia Union 0.11
- (↔︎) New York Red Bulls 0.09
- (↑1) Orlando City SC 0.09
- (↓3) Colorado Rapids 0.07
- Rapids move down despite a healthy road win… that’s because in xG terms, Houston performed almost twice as well as its second-best attacking performance so far this year. Rapids may have stolen one.
- (↑2) FC Dallas -0.16
- (↓1) Austin FC -0.18
- (↓1) Chicago Fire -0.20
- (↔︎) Montreal Impact -0.21
- (↑6) Los Angeles Galaxy -0.31
- Huge jump for the Galaxy after spending much of the year near the top of the West despite pretty awful xG numbers. They had a good day in xG terms at Minnesota, and got the finishing luck (or in this case, a strong goalkeeping performance from Jonathan Klinsmann) to continue the run of results.
- (↓1) Inter Miami CF -0.31
- (↑1) Real Salt Lake -0.38
- (↓2) Columbus Crew -0.41
- (↓2) Fußball Club Cincinnati -0.41
- (↔︎) Atlanta United FC -0.42
- (↓2) San Jose Earthquakes -0.46
- Being held to a draw at home (and essentially a stalemate in xG terms) by Vancouver is not super-good. I think the Caps are really about to turn a corner and play much better, but being one of the clubs to help them with that runway is not preferred.
- (↔︎) Vancouver Whitecaps FC -0.49
- (↔︎) Toronto FC -0.54
- (↔︎) Portland Timbers FC -0.62
- (↔︎) Houston Dynamo -0.67
Club and Country 