Nashville SC

MLS power ratings: Week 15, 2021

For an explainer, hit up the first edition of the 2021 ratings, and if you have additional queries, don’t hesitate to drop me a line on social media. The full table with all the details you could possibly want lives here. These rankings do not include last night’s Minnesota/LAFC draw, although that result didn’t affect the standings significantly, teams’ ratings moved incrementally.

An important reminder: these rankings are a reflection of team strength, not necessarily results. Over/underachieving quality is not only possible, but probable. Underachieving guaranteed for Chicago Fire, in fact.

  1. (↔︎) New York City FC 1.41
  2. (↔︎) DC United 0.89
  3. (↔︎) Sporting Kansas City 0.88
  4. (↔︎) Los Angeles Football Club 0.67
  5. (↑2) Minnesota United FC 0.49
  6. (↔︎) Seattle Sounders 0.48
    • The Sounders have taken some lumps in recent results, but even wins (as with the one against Austin), the advanced numbers weren’t particularly fond. They’ll bounce back, but it’s a major disappointment after they were so elite to begin the year.
  7. (↓2) New England Revolution 0.38
  8. (↑1) Nashville SC 0.26
  9. (↓1) New York Red Bulls 0.19
  10. (↑2) Chicago Fire 0.10
    • It’s incredible how good the advanced numbers are week after week (this week: 3.89-0.77 xG advantage against TFC) and how god-awful the actual results are (this week: 2-2 home draw against TFC).
  11. (↓1) Philadelphia Union -0.01
  12. (↑2) CF Montreal -0.05
  13. (↔︎) Austin FC -0.06
  14. (↓3) Orlando City SC -0.12
    • Usually when you see a massive blowout, the xG numbers show that the gulf between the teams was not as great as the final score (this tracks logically: a team usually gets an early lead by hitting above xG on a couple shots, and then doesn’t need to push to continue scoring), but this one was a thorough ass-kicking at the hands of NYCFC. 3.99-0.54 in expected goals is the second-biggest of the year for any team.
  15. (↓1) Colorado Rapids -0.12
  16. (↔︎) FC Dallas -0.32
    • Dallas has really improved in recent weeks… and for once that translated not just on the margins, but in the scoreline with a 4-0 beatdown of LA Galaxy. Of course, the numbers hate the Galaxy anyway, and without Chicharito around to help overachieve, there’s little in the way of positivity for their results.
  17. (↑1) Columbus Crew -0.35
  18. (↓1) San Jose Earthquakes -0.37
  19. (↑1) Real Salt Lake -0.41
  20. (↓1) Atlanta United FC -0.44
  21. (↑2) Inter Miami CF -0.47
  22. (↓1) Portland Timbers FC -0.48
  23. (↑2) Vancouver Whitecaps FC -0.52
  24. (↔︎) Los Angeles Galaxy -0.56
  25. (↓3) Toronto FC -0.66
    • The advanced numbers have been fairly horrible all year… and they’re actually as bad or worse during the current four-game unbeaten streak than they’ve been all year. TFC is getting results from outstanding finishing and goalkeeping, leading to the mini-bump from a new coach. How sustainable it is… who knows. (We discussed on the pod this week).
  26. (↑1) Fußball Club Cincinnati -0.70
  27. (↓1) Houston Dynamo -0.78

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