See some notes from Matchdate Six ratings to explain what goes into the numbers. Although I haven’t published the ratings since Matchdate 19 – being an adult is conducive to having an unpaid job innit – the deltas are one-week changes.
- Yes, I’m aware that the ratings don’t match what the MLS Standings say. If you’re curious about those, visit major league soccer soccer dot com. (If you’re curious about more results-oriented than performance-oriented rankings, look at G Power rather than xG Power)
- Game data comes from American Soccer Analysis‘s outstanding web app. You can see the full table here.
| ∆ | MD22 | Team | POWER XG | POWER G | HFA xG | Offense xG | Defense xG | “Luck” |
| ↔︎ | 1 | Los Angeles Football Club | 1.01 | 0.03 | 0.32 | 0.66 | -0.35 | -0.98 |
| ↑1 | 2 | Minnesota United FC | 0.77 | -0.13 | -0.08 | 0.54 | -0.23 | -0.90 |
| ↓1 | 3 | Seattle Sounders | 0.72 | 0.27 | 0.32 | 0.19 | -0.53 | -0.45 |
| ↔︎ | 4 | New York Red Bulls | 0.61 | -0.23 | -1.09 | 0.23 | -0.38 | -0.84 |
| ↔︎ | 5 | Fußball Club Cincinnati | 0.47 | 0.35 | -0.43 | 0.37 | -0.09 | -0.12 |
| ↔︎ | 6 | Columbus Crew | 0.30 | 0.53 | 0.74 | 0.24 | -0.05 | 0.23 |
| ↔︎ | 7 | Vancouver Whitecaps FC | 0.24 | -0.02 | 0.20 | 0.37 | 0.12 | -0.26 |
| ↔︎ | 8 | Philadelphia Union | 0.24 | 0.37 | 0.24 | 0.17 | -0.06 | 0.13 |
| ↔︎ | 9 | Nashville SC | 0.19 | 0.61 | 0.53 | -0.03 | -0.22 | 0.42 |
| ↔︎ | 10 | DC United | 0.07 | 0.03 | -1.38 | 0.01 | -0.05 | -0.04 |
| ↔︎ | 11 | New York City FC | 0.04 | -0.09 | 0.07 | -0.20 | -0.24 | -0.13 |
| ↑3 | 12 | Sporting Kansas City | 0.03 | -0.22 | -0.58 | -0.15 | -0.19 | -0.25 |
| ↓1 | 13 | Orlando City SC | 0.02 | 0.43 | -0.59 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.41 |
| ↑4 | 14 | St. Louis City SC | 0.01 | 0.40 | -1.10 | 0.23 | 0.21 | 0.39 |
| ↓2 | 15 | FC Dallas | 0.01 | -0.07 | -0.58 | -0.21 | -0.21 | -0.08 |
| ↑1 | 16 | Atlanta United FC | -0.04 | -0.01 | 0.76 | -0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| ↓3 | 17 | Los Angeles Galaxy | -0.07 | -0.68 | -0.27 | 0.24 | 0.31 | -0.60 |
| ↓2 | 18 | Portland Timbers FC | -0.11 | -0.17 | 0.14 | -0.30 | -0.18 | -0.05 |
| ↑2 | 19 | Houston Dynamo | -0.18 | 0.16 | 0.20 | 0.01 | 0.19 | 0.34 |
| ↑2 | 20 | San Jose Earthquakes | -0.19 | -0.12 | 1.02 | -0.05 | 0.14 | 0.06 |
| ↑3 | 21 | Real Salt Lake | -0.23 | -0.19 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.27 | 0.04 |
| ↓3 | 22 | Colorado Rapids | -0.24 | -0.53 | 1.17 | -0.47 | -0.23 | -0.30 |
| ↓3 | 23 | New England Revolution | -0.32 | 0.48 | 0.27 | 0.15 | 0.47 | 0.80 |
| ↑2 | 24 | Chicago Fire | -0.41 | -0.27 | -0.28 | -0.12 | 0.29 | 0.14 |
| ↑2 | 25 | Montreal Impact | -0.41 | -0.05 | 0.85 | -0.39 | 0.02 | 0.37 |
| ↓1 | 26 | Toronto FC | -0.44 | -0.14 | 0.55 | -0.40 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| ↓4 | 27 | Austin FC | -0.45 | -0.21 | -0.03 | -0.18 | 0.26 | 0.24 |
| ↔︎ | 28 | Charlotte FC | -0.64 | -0.21 | 0.10 | -0.39 | 0.25 | 0.43 |
| ↔︎ | 29 | Inter Miami CF | -0.76 | -0.39 | -1.58 | -0.37 | 0.39 | 0.36 |
The notes and observations:
- Inter Miam is on pace to be – by a wide margin – the worst non-FC Cincinnati team of the past five years. Obviously they’ll be much better when the greatest player in history joins. But man, it’s gonna be too late to change anything unless they spring a couple upsets here. (Pro tip from Club and Country industries: do not hire Phil Neville to do anything. He will give a team that’s bad enough even Lionel Messi can’t save it).
- The story with the like of Nashville remains the same, despite the first two losses in some time: a team that’s playing from ahead and conceding pressure, but not giving up the goal is going to have less-attractive xG numbers than, like, actual results. Even getting pipped on the Actual Scoreboard twice last week didn’t take them out of the top slot in those rankings, though.
- LAFC, with its bad run of form (2-4-1 in the past seven), now has the profile of a 2021 NYCFC type: really good xG numbers, not really getting there when it comes to the conversion or results. There’s reason to believe that – unlike how I felt about NYC back then – this LAFC team is not the Actual Best Squad in the league (pending summer changes), but their performance against expectations will be one to watch as they approach the playoffs, at least.
- Meanwhile, I’m actually sort of sold on this Minnesota United team. No, I do not think it’s the second-best in MLS, but nor do I think the Loons are as low as No. 11 in the West in overall quality, either. Particularly with a talismanic player in Ema Reynoso returning, look for a climb here.
- It brings me no pleasure to report that if one were to blend Being Actually Good with Getting Good Results, at this stage FC Cincinnati appears to be the real deal.
Club and Country 