Nashville SC made easy work of CF Montreal at the beginning of the year. This… is a different team nowadays, at least in terms of performance.
The essentials
Opponent: CF Montreal (7-9-1)
Time, Location: Wednesday, June 21, 6:30 p.m. CDT (7:30 local) • Montreal, Quebec
Weather: 78º F, 1% chance of rain, 44% humidity, negligible wind
Follow: MLS MatchCenter • @ClubCountryUSA • @NashvilleSC
Watch/Stream • Listen: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV (free!) • 104.5 The Zone
Match officials: Referee: Tori Penso. Assistants: Oscar Mitchell-Carvalho, Chantal Boudreau. Fourth official: Michael Venne. Video assistants: Michael Radchuk, Mike Kampmeinert
Vegas Odds: Nashville SC +144, Draw +229, Montreal +191
Etc.: Rate, review, subscribe. Last time preview and game content.
| Stat | Nashville SC | CF Montreal |
| Record (W-L-D) | 10-3-5 (1.94 PPG) 2nd East | 7-9-1 (1.29 PPG) 9th West |
| Recent form (most recent first) | W-D-W-W-W | W-L-D-W-L |
| GF/Game | 1.56 | 1.12 |
| GA/Game | 0.72 | 1.59 |
| xG Power | +0.16 (9th MLS) | -0.33 (22nd MLS) |
| G Power | +0.70 (1st MLS) | +0.05 (14th MLS) |
| “Luck” | +0.54 (3rd MLS) | +0.38 (3rd MLS) |
| Offense | -0.07 (17th MLS) | -0.32 (24th MLS) |
| Defense | -0.23 (8th MLS) | +0.01 (16th MLS) |
| Venue advantage | -0.41 Away (21st MLS) | +0.97 Home (3rd MLS) |
| Injury report | OUT: F Teal Bunbury (leg), D Nick DePuy (leg, season) QUEST.: D Lukas MacNaughton (leg) INT’L: M Aníbal Godoy (Panama), W Fafa Picault (Haiti) | OUT: M Samuel Piette (adductor), F Romell Quioto (hamstring) |
CF Montreal
As noted at the top, this is a very different Montreal team to the one that Nashville SC played in GEODIS Park back in March. Montreal got off to a 1-6-0 start, but is 6-3-1 in the time since. They’ve gotten better! It’s also worth noting that a significant proportion of that bad start had to do with playing on the road: they were 1-1-0 at home and 0-5-0 on the road to begin the year. It’s been 5-0-0 at home since (without allowing a goal), and 1-3-1 on the road. Certainly Montreal got a lot better over the course of the early season, but also there’s just a comfort in playing at home that suits the Impact well. And their home wins have been over the Torontos and Miamis of the world, not really the Phillys.
So Nashville is on the road, and will have to deal with the buzzsaw version tonight. It’s worth noting that the xG numbers have been basically fine even at home, nothing special, but basically the entirety of their luck factor has been built up in those games.
We didn’t have a ton of data at the beginning of the year (obvs). Now we have much more. James Pantemis was the starter back then, but was out with injury – suffered in the opener, even – and he’s been Wally Pipped. Jonathan Sirois has been decent, allowing 104% of xG against… while Pantemis has been pretty bad when on the field (133% of xG against).
The personnel in the back is completely different: George Campbell, Rudy Camacho, and Joel Waterman have played in the back three basically whenever all healthy, with Gabriele Corbo the primary backup at all three spots (which actually means he’s played significantly more than Campbell, who miss the first seven games with injury and played sparingly in the next three as he returned). Camacho and Waterman are good distributors, Camacho and Corbo are good interruptors. Campbell has been sort of bad all-around except in ASA‘s fouling breakout for G+. None of those guys were sure starting CBs last time I previewed this team! Victor Wanyama is now at his more natural position in central midfield, while Kamal Miller got traded to Inter Miami (he’s been one of very few good players for the Herons, fwiw).
Here’s what I wrote about a couple of the key Impactmen last time around
If I were Hernán Losada (thankfully I am not), I would probably stick Piette in the midfield and hope to disrupt Hany Mukhtar before he ever faces the backline, but there are no easy answers because Piette is not particularly good, and he’s still going to be shielding someone else who’s playing out of position.
March 11
As alluded to above, there have been two philosophies with the front three: a creator behind a strike pairing, And a single striker with two winger/creator-types behind. Romell Quioto has been the link between all, and while the numbers have not been pretty (five shots, 0.91 xG), you could fairly look at the team around him and guess it’s not all – or even mostly – his fault that he hasn’t been productive.
March 11
You’ll scroll up to the injury report and see that both of them are absent with injury – presumably this is not ideal for Hernán Losada.
The rest of the attack, at least, was written about in relevant terms to tonight’s match:
Mathieu Choinière was the left winger/dual 10 against Austin, and was also a halftime sub as the lone 10 i the other game. He has two key passes and four shots (one on-target) in that time, and while G+ has been lukewarm on his receiving and shooting to date, it’s unimpressed with his passing – important in a creator role! – and down on his defensive and progressive production.
Sunusi Ibrahim and Chinonso Offor have been the other guys contributing in attack. Standing on the field in attacking roles may be a more accurate way to put it. Ibrahim is a lil guy at 5-6 (though well-built at 177 pounds), and played as Quioto’s strike partner in the top two before coming in as a late attacking sub against Austin – though he didn’t play enough to really determine where he was playing (he replaced a CB). He really impressed with his passing, which should be something to watch, no matter where he plays, as long as he gets on the field. Offor has played both second striker and as the right winger/creator, and aside from getting in a good position to receive some passes, he hasn’t contributed a whole lot.
March 11
Choinière has been between the double-pivot and a No. 8/10 position in Piette’s absence, while Ibrahim and Offor are complemented (or benched) by Bryce Duke – the Miami player for whom CFMTL traded Miller – Lassi Lappalainen, and Mason Toye. Toye missed a huge proportion of the season with meniscus surgery, only returning for the past couple games. Lappalainen usually plays LWB but has been drawn into service as part of a strike pairing or as a winger in a front three. Duke is the third-worst player in MLS according to G+.
Offor and Sunusi lead the team in xG (even though Sunusi plays sparingly), though both are underachieving at this point.
That leaves wingbacks in the weird order I’ve run through the lineup, and that’s where much of Montreal’s attacking production comes from. Aaron Herrera (who will play in the Gold Cup for Honduras after a US cap in 2021) and Ariel Lassiter have 1.15 and 1.86 xA, respectively. Zachary Brault-Guillard has been coming off the bench and has 0.94. Lappalainen (a little less clear because of the multiple positions he’s played) is rockin’ at 0.57. Choinière’s service from the middle is the only other significant source of key passes.
This attack is bad, the defense has gotten a ton better… but both of these units are much better on the Banks of the St. Lawrence River than they are away from home. The overall lack of consistent production makes it harder to know exactly which guys are the dangermen you need to shut down, but that simply means there aren’t must-stop guys, either.
Keys to the game
- Let Hany be the man. Largely because he is.
- Send Shaffelburg in-behind late in the match. Even without Fafa Picault, it seems like a good move to use Jacob Shaffelburg as a sub. Montreal’s 3-5-2 or 3-4-3 asks a lot of the wingbacks athletically, and putting him on the field against tired legs (in his final game before international duty, much like Brault-Guillard and Herrera, Nashville doesn’t necessarily need to worry about saving his legs. That’s Canada’s problem in a way Montreal… doesn’t have the luxury with Brault-Guillard) could be profitable.
- Control the middle. I actually really like Choinière and Wanyama. I’d argue they’re the two best players on the field most matches. Will Nashville stick with the diamond midfield, even given depth issues from international play, in order to clog those guys up and occasionally overwhelm them with numbers?
- Physical with their forwards. Ibrahim and (to a lesser extent) Offor are decent battlers in the middle… but if you don’t let them get onto the end of crosses, Montreal has to devise new ways to get into attack. (
- Set pieces. Ever has it been, ever shall it be.
Prediction
Nashville SC 0, CF Montreal 0. Seems like a game worth playing for a scoreless draw tbh.
Club and Country 