MLS Power Ratings: Matchdate 19

See some notes from Matchdate Six ratings to explain what goes into the numbers. Sort of a late post, but the numbers have to be updated for the NSC preview, so here we are.

• Yes, I’m aware that the ratings don’t match what the MLS Standings say. If you’re curious about those, visit major league soccer soccer dot com. (If you’re curious about more results-oriented than performance-oriented rankings, look at G Power rather than xG Power)
• Game data comes from American Soccer Analysis‘s outstanding web app. You can see the full table here.

∆	MD19	Team	POWER XG	POWER G	HFA xG	Offense xG	Defense xG	“Luck”
↔︎	1	Los Angeles Football Club	1.12	0.31	0.58	0.71	-0.40	-0.81
↔︎	2	Seattle Sounders	0.78	0.30	0.45	0.29	-0.49	-0.49
↔︎	3	Minnesota United FC	0.64	-0.18	-0.45	0.39	-0.26	-0.82
↔︎	4	Fußball Club Cincinnati	0.52	0.52	-0.94	0.36	-0.16	0.00
↔︎	5	New York Red Bulls	0.45	-0.39	-0.87	0.13	-0.32	-0.84
↑2	6	Vancouver Whitecaps FC	0.26	-0.02	0.34	0.22	-0.04	-0.27
↔︎	7	Philadelphia Union	0.24	0.47	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.22
↓2	8	Columbus Crew	0.23	0.39	0.87	0.14	-0.09	0.16
↔︎	9	Nashville SC	0.16	0.70	0.41	-0.07	-0.23	0.54
↑1	10	New York City FC	0.13	-0.21	0.03	-0.12	-0.25	-0.34
↑1	11	FC Dallas	0.04	0.07	-0.53	-0.11	-0.16	0.03
↓2	12	San Jose Earthquakes	0.00	-0.04	0.76	0.03	0.04	-0.04
↑2	13	Colorado Rapids	-0.01	-0.56	1.17	-0.34	-0.33	-0.56
↑6	14	Portland Timbers FC	-0.02	0.09	-0.14	-0.33	-0.32	0.10
↓1	15	Los Angeles Galaxy	-0.03	-0.79	0.20	0.30	0.33	-0.75
↑1	16	Orlando City SC	-0.05	0.36	-0.34	-0.04	0.02	0.41
↑2	17	Sporting Kansas City	-0.06	-0.24	-0.61	-0.23	-0.17	-0.18
↓2	18	Atlanta United FC	-0.07	0.15	1.07	0.08	0.14	0.22
↑2	19	St. Louis City SC	-0.07	0.33	-0.92	0.27	0.35	0.40
↓2	20	New England Revolution	-0.10	0.53	0.29	0.26	0.36	0.63
↓8	21	DC United	-0.10	-0.02	-1.68	0.00	0.10	0.09
↔︎	22	Montreal Impact	-0.33	0.05	0.97	-0.32	0.01	0.38
↑3	23	Houston Dynamo	-0.37	0.15	-0.20	-0.05	0.32	0.52
↓1	24	Toronto FC	-0.38	-0.07	0.86	-0.43	-0.06	0.30
↓1	25	Austin FC	-0.40	-0.41	-0.28	-0.10	0.29	-0.02
↑1	26	Real Salt Lake	-0.46	-0.43	0.35	-0.16	0.30	0.02
↓2	27	Chicago Fire	-0.46	-0.29	-0.18	-0.29	0.16	0.17
↔︎	28	Charlotte FC	-0.58	-0.22	0.13	-0.33	0.26	0.36
↔︎	29	Inter Miami CF	-0.99	-0.31	-1.70	-0.51	0.48	0.68

The notes and observations:

• A bad couple weeks for LAFC and the Angels (or whatever) remain No. 1. There’s starting to be a taste of the 2021 NYCFCs where the luck is obscuring what a good team this really is on the table – of course it wasn’t really that obscured before the past couple weeks with a couple losses to Houston and a squeaker against SKC.
• Nashville remains ninth in the table, but in the G Power metric (outcome-oriented rather than performance oriented), the Boys in Gold are a clear No. 1. That’s almost entirely gamstate related – and downstream from the fact that this generally isn’t a team that tries to run up the score in wins, but will counter for a late insurance goal. Indeed, if you take away their three road victories (survey says “road victories are good”), they’d move up to sixth. This is a team that executes the “absorb pressure” gameplan very well, even on the road.
• I won’t shed any tears about a club fourth in its conference. But Philly is not up to recent historical standard… and the numbers say the Union is overachieving. That’s a little scary… until a closer look reveals that most of the overachievement comes from goalkeeping, and when you have Andre Blake that may well be sustainable. Now let me take a big swig of piping-hot coffee out of my “Andre Blake is not away for international duty for the next six games” mug.
• Lionel Messi better be good. Because man. Inter Miami is so, so not. Worst offense and worst defense in the league by some scary-wide margins.