Perhaps Nashville’s worst result so far in 2023 is on deck for a bit of a revenge game. Can the Boys in Gold make up for a home draw against one of the league’s worst teams with the road trip to Toronto?
The essentials
Opponent: Toronto FC (3-5-9)
Time, Location: Saturday, June 10, 6:30 p.m. CDT (7:30 local) • Toronto, Ontario
Weather: 73º F, 1% chance of rain, 50% humidity, 7 MPH WSW wind
Follow: MLS MatchCenter • @ClubCountryUSA • @NashvilleSC
Watch/Stream • Listen: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV • 104.5 The Zone
Match officials: Referee: Jon Freemon. Assistants:: Chris Wattam, Meghan Mullen. Fourth official: Mathieu Souare. Video assistants: Younes Marrakchi, Jonathan Johnson
Vegas Odds: Nashville SC +175, Draw +225, Toronto +158
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| Stat | Nashville SC | Toronto FC |
| Record (W-L-D) | 9-3-4 (1.94 PPG) 2nd East | 3-5-9 (1.06 PPG) 14th West |
| Recent form (most recent first) | W-W-W-W-D | D-D-W-L-D |
| GF/Game | 1.50 | 0.94 |
| GA/Game | 0.69 | 1.18 |
| xG Power | +0.27 (9th MLS) | -0.28 (20th MLS) |
| G Power | +0.76 (1st MLS) | -0.09 (18th MLS) |
| “Luck” | +0.49 (3rd MLS) | +0.19 (12th MLS) |
| Offense | -0.04 (18th MLS) | -0.36 (27th MLS) |
| Defense | -0.31 (6th MLS) | -0.08 (14th MLS) |
| Venue advantage | -0.60 Away (22nd MLS) | +0.78 Home (6th MLS) |
| Injury report | OUT: D Nick DePuy (leg, season) QUEST.: W Luke Haakenson (lower body) INT’L: D Walker Zimmerman (USA) | OUT: M Michael Bradley (lower body), M Alonso Coello (lower body), F Adama Diomande (lower body), M Victor Vázquez (lower body) QUEST.: D Matt Hedges (lower body), D Shane O’Neill (lower body) |
Toronto FC
This team has not been good this year, and lately there’s been a little issue of two of the highest-paid players in league history (for another month, at least) absolutely hating the head coach and the team captain. Who are father and son. It’s great, I bet.
Here’s what I wrote about the Italians (oh by the way they also hate each other, the whole situation is v. funny unless you’re a Toronto fan) last time around:
Starting from the attack, the absence of Insigne has been felt, given that he’s been elite when he’s been on the pitch… but only played barely over 1000 minutes for TFC since joining last year. His countryman, Federico Bernardeschi, has been a very good dribbler and above-average shooter during his time with Toronto FC… but he doesn’t receive the ball in dangerous positions, and his passing has been below average for a winger. He dribbles to create for himself and can smack a free kick, but otherwise he can struggle to find the game.
April 8
Insigne is back and has been fairly effective when on the field – he, too, can smack a free kick, but he manages to get into the game quite a bit more than Bernardeschi, with good dribbling, receiving, and even interrupting breakout metrics in Goals Added. Bernardeschi has managed to recover a bit to lead the team in xG and xA, and given that he’s underachieving both numbers, a light sprinkling of “doesn’t hate the coach” could see him break out little bit in the second half of the season.
Striker CJ Sapong scored in his Toronto debut, but other than that the quiet streak that dates back to last May during his time as a Nashville player has otherwise continued. The backup option, 20-year old homegrown DeAndre Kerr, has started getting a bigger proportion of recent minutes. He’s more effective on a per-minute basis but not particularly consistent.
Without Michael Bradley, the central midfield has usually relied upon Alonso Coello… but he’s also out for this one, which puts Mark-Anthony Kaye in position to be the only option there with any defensive bite. Well, for a given definition of “bite:” Kaye’s really rough start to the season has somehow gotten even worse. Brandon Servania and Jahkeel Marshall-Rutty have been the primary advanced midfielders, with Kerr getting some action as a 10-type when he’s not playing in place of Sapong.
The defense has been mediocre. Here’s what I wrote last time:
The backline has been very active in the interruption game, with both fullbacks and one of the CBs doing a lot of breaking up play. This is an area where team context is important to consider, since they have to break up a lot when the DMs in front of them largely ineffective (or in Bradley’s case “just fine”) in that regard. Matt Hedges and Sigur Rosted (Ágætis byrjun was their best almbum, imo) have played every minute in the middle, with Hedges the super-active disruptor while Rosted makes up for his lack of activity in breaking up play with… uh… maybe he’s in position in ways that don’t come with an event in the data, because the G+ numbers are lukewarm at-best in all six breakout categories.
April 8
Those fullbacks are Richie Laryea (who remains very good) and with Marshall-Rutty stuck playing CM in Bradley/Coello’s absences, Kobe Franklin. He’s a good interruptor but sort of bad at other on-ball stuff.
At CB, Rosted has been supplanted by Aimé Mabika. He’s… statistically uninteresting in many of the same ways that Rosted was earlier, with Hedges even more interrupt-y and less other-stuff-y than he was a couple months back. Hedges is also questionable for the game! When he hasn’t been able to go in the past, it’s been Shane O’Neill (also questionable for tonight), Lukas MacNaughton (now playing better for Nashville than he ever did for Toronto), or a fullback sliding inside. What I’m saying is that they don’t want Hedges to be unavailable.
In net, Sean Johnson is the man, and he’s one of the elite keepers of recent years.
In net, it has not been a smooth transition for Sean Johnson, who arrives after several elite seasons for New York City FC… and has allowed seven goals on 6.83 xG. That’s not bad (particularly given small sample-size caveats), but he’s not out here stealing games, to say the least.
April 8
He’s stabilized and while the early hole means he’s not gonna get back to his usual lfty perches, he’s a very good goalkeeper in a fairly tough situation.
Keys to the game
- Do something. Both teams were very content to not play soccer last time around, and the intervening month has shown us that was probably a good choice for Toronto and a bad one for Nashville. The Boys in Gold have the better team, and should try to prove it.
- Don’t give up free-kick opportunities. Toronto has a legit shooting threat in Bernardeschi, and he can assist as well. Just don’t put this Toronto team in positions to score outside of open play.
- Make the central midfielders (and possibly a backup CB) move. They really, really don’t want to do that. Or they do and their traitorous legs won’t comply. Either way, the (im)mobility there should allow Nashville to get uneven moments, and Hany should run at that backline.
- Draw them up and pounce. I don’t think Nashville should devolve into a bunker-counter by any stretch of the imagination, but Toronto is also a team that wants to play a ton of short combinations in the attacking third, and if they get frustrated when those aren’t creating opportunities against a disciplined Nashville defense, they’ll push numbers forward and be exploitable with the speed of Jacob Shaffelburg, Fafa Picault, and the like.
- Set pieces. Ever has it been, ever shall it be.
Prediction
Nashville SC 2, Toronto FC 1
Club and Country 