A Classic Tim® late preview. We move.
The essentials
Opponent: FC Dallas (6-4-5)
Time, Location: Saturday, June 3, 7:30 p.m. CDT • Frisco, Texas
Weather:80ºF, 15% chance of rain, 42% humidity, 10 MPH NE wind
Follow: MLS MatchCenter • @ClubCountryUSA • @NashvilleSC
Watch/Stream • Listen: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV (free!) • 104.5 The Zone
Match officials: Referee: Pierre-luc Lauziere. Assistants: Jeremy Kieso, Jeffrey Swartzel. Fourth official: Gianni Facchini. Video Assistants: Jorge Gonzalez, Rene Parra
Vegas Odds: Nashville SC +204, Draw +223, Dallas +139
Etc.: Rate, review, subscribe.
| Stat | Nashville SC | FC Dallas |
| Record (W-L-D) | 8-3-4 (1.87 PPG) 2nd East | 6-4-5 (1.53 PPG) 4th West |
| Recent form (most recent first) | W-W-W-D-W | L-D-D-W-W |
| GF/Game | 1.47 | 1.20 |
| GA/Game | 0.67 | 1.07 |
| xG Power | +0.31 (8th MLS) | +0.15 (11th MLS) |
| G Power | +0.56 (3rd MLS) | +0.08 (12th MLS) |
| “Luck” | +0.24 (10th MLS) | -0.07 (19th MLS) |
| Offense | -0.07 (18th MLS) | -0.08 (19th MLS) |
| Defense | -0.39 (4th MLS) | -0.23 (9th MLS) |
| Venue advantage | -0.54 Away (22nd MLS) | -1.17 Away (28th MLS) |
| Injury report | OUT: D Nick DePuy (leg, season) QUEST.: D Walker Zimmerman (groin) | OUT: W Paul Arriola (right thigh), M Sebastian Lletget (right thigh), W Tsiki Ntsabeleng (knee), M Paxton Pomykal (left thigh), F Ema Twumasi (ankle), F Tarik Scott (season) SUSP: M Edwin Cerrillo (yellow card accumulation) INT’L DUTY: GK Antonio Carrera (US U-20) |
FC Dallas
As I so often do, I’ll start with the injury report, and it’s a hefty one for FCD. Winger, DP, record intraleague transfer, USMNT regular Paul Arriola has missed the past four games (and was limited in the one before that) with a thigh injury, while SMNT alum Sebastian Lletget has joined him on the injury list over the course of that period. That may not be too significant except the depth at the attacking midfield spots consists of Paxton Pomykal and Tsiki Ntsabeleng… who are also both out. FCD lists Ema Twumasi as a forward, but he’s played almost exclusively RB this season, and has been the starter when available. Edwin Cerrillo has been basically locked in as one of the starting holding mids… and he’s suspended after his fifth yellow of the year in the midweek. This is not a full-strength lineup, and even one slightly closer to full strength was sorta non-competitive in GEODIS Park just three and a half weeks ago. (The other two absences, Tarik Scott and Antonio Carrera, have not seen action this year).
So who steps up? Uh… There’s literally not enough healthy and available talent to run out a midfield with guys who have seen any action there so far this year. Facundo Quignón will be one of the holding midfielders (as he typically is next to Cerrillo), and Nolan Norris – who is listed as a defender but whose lone appearance this year saw him play DM for 55 minutes in last week’s loss to Sporting KC – will almost certainly be the other. Quignon is a decent interruptor and distributor who doesn’t typically get too involved in the attack (for what it’s worth, Cerrillo has been roundly below-average to G+ this year).
They went to a 4-4-2 in the midweek just to have healthy bodies at 11 positions, with Alan Velasco and Jader Obrian – typically more traditional tucked-in wingers – playing the wide midfield spots. Obrian is a dribbly guy who tries and fails to set up teammates with good passing, and while he’s been mostly a non-entity in the scoring department this year (one goal on 1.56 xG), his failures in passing may be outside of his own control (one assist on 2.43 xA). Velasco’s style – he’s a good defender but absolutely sucks in attack (to the tune of a barely-positive dribbling breakout to G+, but utterly terrible passing and receiving marks that he does not make up for by being above-average in the shooting realm).
FCD will try to make up for it up top with USMNT striker Jesús Ferreira and Spaniard Jesús Jimenez playing off each other. Ferreira is a more distribution-style false-nine type – he’s the guy you know from the USMNT, but probably better than you remember – while Jimenez is a more traditional finisher type. He gets into good positions and hopes the wingers or Ferreira can get it to him. Given the stylistic differences and the dearth of midfield talent available, you can imagine that Jesús (I will not be specifying which one, you figure it out (it’s obvious), it’s annoying to me that they have the same name) will drop and play as a No. 10 in role if not stated position for much of the contest.
Defensively, the lack of Twumasi (an OK defender but surprisingly toothless in attack, given his positional history) probably isn’t that big of a deal. Marco Farfán has been nearly an every-minute player at LB – he’s uninvolved defensively and in attack, while there’s a healthy three-man rotation at CB with Nkosi Burgess and José Martínez getting the bulk of the time, but Sebastien Ibeagha playing nearly as much as either of them, and being the primary backup for each. Ibeagha’s by far the most active as a sweeper-style guy (but he’s poor on the ball), while the other two are a little more… statistically uninteresting? Martínez is aggressively uninvolved in interrupting, but as is often the case with CBs and defensive players more generally, that can be a style choice rather than anything informative about the individual player. Collin Smith started at RB Wednesday, but came out early for Geovane Jesús (it’s Jesúses all the way down) who has the most minutes of any non-Twumasi RB. He and the other backup FB (Sam Junqua on the left) are basically the same: just below average in all G+ breakout categories, but not to the extent that they’re likely to be liabilities.
In net, Maarten Paes has been an above-average keeper (allowing 92% of xG-against conversion) while in 300 minutes, backup Jimmy Maurer has been horrible (202%). Paes is above average handling (not giving up rebounds) but sort of undistinguishable from the pack in most other ways, while Maurer is decent at all the goalkeeping things except the most important goalkeeping thing.
FCD is pretty darn good at home, but they have a weird statistical quirk, too: they’ve given up precisely one goal in every home match (and have scored precisely once in almost every away match – they were shut out once), so the away team in FCD games is guaranteed a goal, but guaranteed only a goal to date. With the thin midfield and missing RB, it’ll probably be up to Paes (or a conservative gameplan from Nashville) to keep that streak running.
Keys to the game
- Body Jesús. Specifically Ferreira. He’s a good player, underrated because US Men’s National teams want to throw a fit about an MLS player being in the pool, but he is susceptible to disappearing at times if you get physical with him. Nashville has the pieces to be able to do that.
- Don’t park the bus. Nashville will be able to find opportunities on the counter given FCD’s personnel deficiencies on the ol’ availability report. But Nashville shouldn’t settle for only looking for opportunities on the counter. Getting Hany Mukhtar running at bad/inexperienced defensive midfielders and a passive backline is gonna pay off, whether it happens in transition or more-settled play.
- Pick on the guys playing slightly out of position. They’re not in the worst spots for their skillsets (I’d much rather pick on Norris, who’s going to be in the unfamiliar position of “on the field”), but I don’t think Velasco and Obrian are going to be hyper-comfortable with their defensive roles and playing as wide as they’ll likely have to given the deficiencies around them.
- MVP form. I would simply let Hany Mukhtar do incredible things on the ball (whether that’s scoring himself or feeding his speed merchants on the outside and over the top).
- Set pieces. Ever has it been, ever shall it be.
Prediction
Nashville SC 1, FC Dallas 1
Club and Country 