For an explainer, hit up the first edition of the 2021 ratings, and if you have additional queries, don’t hesitate to drop me a line on social media. The full table with all the details you could possibly want lives here.
An important reminder: these rankings are a reflection of team strength, not necessarily results. Historically, that’s more correlated with future results than even past results are. Over/underachieving quality is not only possible, but probable. Underachieving guaranteed for Chicago Fire, in fact.
- (↔︎) New York City FC 0.93
- (↑1) Los Angeles Football Club 0.82
- LAFC’s rise has more to do with a drop from DC United than anything Bob Bradley’s squad did against Los Angeles Galaxy. The creation (and creation-preventing) numbers remain outstanding, though the goals-only calculations have this as a below-average squad (-0.11).
- (↓1) DC United 0.77
- (↑1) Nashville SC 0.53
- (↓1) New England Revolution 0.53
- The Revs actually got dinged just a bit on the out-of-town scoreboard while idle this weekend. The typical disclaimer (not that any Revs fans do – possibly can? – read this) applies: with strong goalkeeping and a coach who’s very satisfied winning by a single score (as the Revs have done in 14 of their 20 wins this year), the numbers are going to be a little more skeptical than deserved.
- (↑1) Minnesota United FC 0.45
- (↓1) Sporting Kansas City 0.40
- (↔︎) Seattle Sounders 0.31
- (↔︎) Colorado Rapids 0.15
- (↑2) New York Red Bulls 0.11
- Every time it looks like we see signs of life from this NYRB team, we get disappointed – and when those signs come against FC Cincinnati, even more skepticism is warranted – but there are signs of life here nevertheless.
- (↓1) Montreal Impact 0.09
- (↓1) Philadelphia Union 0.02
- Philly’s game was specifically designed for the final xG numbers to be misleading: go up 2-0 on limited xG, ride out most of the game short-handed, give up a penalty (missed), bunker it out to finish the result. Somebody release xG by gamestate, pls.
- (↑2) Orlando City SC -0.11
- (↔︎) Atlanta United FC -0.11
- (↓2) Chicago Fire -0.14
- The Reverse Revs (look pretty on the spreadsheet but actually suck) took one on the chin against a moribund Toronto FC squad. It knocked the Fire down a peg (and hilariously, barely boosted TFC). They still end up juicing the numbers while struggling to actually get results.
- (↔︎) Los Angeles Galaxy -0.14
- (↑2) Austin FC -0.25
- (↓1) FC Dallas -0.29
- (↑1) Houston Dynamo -0.30
- (↓2) Real Salt Lake -0.36
- (↔︎) Portland Timbers FC -0.39
- The Timbers don’t feel like a team that the numbers are unfair to: they often look ugly, but grind out enough wins (and basically no draws) to stand in a decent place in the table. The game that they’re succeeding in is not “be good at soccer,” so much as “be good at the table,” which tbf is more important during the regular season anyway.
- (↔︎) Columbus Crew -0.41
- (↑1) Toronto FC -0.42
- (↑2) Vancouver Whitecaps FC -0.45
- (↑2) Fußball Club Cincinnati -0.58
- (↓3) Inter Miami CF -0.60
- (↓2) San Jose Earthquakes -0.60
- pobrecitas
Club and Country 