For an explainer, hit up the first edition of the 2021 ratings, and if you have additional queries, don’t hesitate to drop me a line on social media. The full table with all the details you could possibly want lives here.
An important reminder: these rankings are a reflection of team strength, not necessarily results. Historically, that’s more correlated with future results than even past results are. Over/underachieving quality is not only possible, but probable. Underachieving guaranteed for Chicago Fire, in fact.
- (↔︎) New York City FC 0.94
- NYCFC took a huge drop in its raw number this week, but had such a huge lead on the field that its ranking doesn’t drop at all. The team has been playing pretty poorly the past few weeks, in fact, but that early run with incredible xG (and not necessarily always wins to accompany) keeps the Pigeons No. 1.
- (↔︎) Los Angeles Football Club 0.89
- Ibid. Both these teams have underachieved, but LAFC by far, far more.
- (↔︎) DC United 0.72
- (↔︎) New England Revolution 0.55
- (↔︎) Minnesota United FC 0.52
- (↑1) Nashville SC 0.50
- (↓1) Sporting Kansas City 0.40
- (↔︎) Seattle Sounders 0.32
- (↔︎) Colorado Rapids 0.13
- (↔︎) CF Montreal 0.12
- (↑1) New York Red Bulls 0.08
- The win/draw week against NYCFC certainly impressed the numbers from a Red Bulls perspective more than it damaged City.
- (↓1) Philadelphia Union 0.06
- (↔︎) Chicago Fire -0.08
- (↑3) Orlando City SC -0.19
- (↓1) Atlanta United FC -0.20
- For what it’s worth, Atlanta’s raw number actually improved this week, the Five Stripes were just passed by OCSC.
- (↔︎) FC Dallas -0.21
- (↑1) Real Salt Lake -0.24
- (↓3) Los Angeles Galaxy -0.26
- Not only did the Galaxy lose to Austin, it happened in pretty worrying fashion, and Greg Vanney’s side created very little against one of the worst defenses in the league.
- (↑1) Austin FC -0.30
- (↑4) Houston Dynamo -0.37
- (↔︎) Vancouver Whitecaps FC -0.38
- (↓3) Inter Miami CF -0.41
- The three-position drop doesn’t even include the midweek bludgeoning at the hands of Nashville (which dropped IMCF one spot only), though it set the stage for getting passed while idle over the weekend.
- (↔︎) Portland Timbers FC -0.47
- xG overachievement means a 6-1 win doesn’t impress the numbers too much, though Portland is solidified as (by far) the overachievin’est club in the league to this point.
- (↑2) San Jose Earthquakes -0.48
- (↓3) Columbus Crew -0.48
- (↓1) Fußball Club Cincinnati -0.48
- (↔︎) Toronto FC -0.66