For an explainer, hit up the first edition of the 2021 ratings, and if you have additional queries, don’t hesitate to drop me a line on social media. The full table with all the details you could possibly want lives here.
An important reminder: these rankings are a reflection of team strength, not necessarily results. Historically, that’s more correlated with future results than even past results are. Over/underachieving quality is not only possible, but probable. Underachieving guaranteed for Chicago Fire, in fact.
- (↔︎) New York City FC 1.06
- (↔︎) Los Angeles Football Club 0.90
- Another result against the run of play goes in favor of LAFC’s opponent. You can fairly say that this team is bound to underachieve its numbers (like New England will overachieve its own). If they could get even close-to-average finishing, this team could be the juggernaut the numbers think it is. There’s no reason to expect that happens this year.
- (↔︎) DC United 0.73
- (↑1) New England Revolution 0.68
- (↓1) Minnesota United FC 0.62
- (↔︎) Sporting Kansas City 0.45
- (↔︎) Nashville SC 0.41
- Even a very poor result against Toronto FC saw Nashville get the xG edge on the road (an impressive feat, whoever the opponent), but this team’s ceiling in the ratings seems pretty close to a cap, unless the road form finishes on an incredible tear.
- (↔︎) Seattle Sounders 0.28
- The Sounders are on a bit of a bad run, but it’s worth noting that the goals-only numbers like Seattle a lot more.
- (↔︎) Colorado Rapids 0.12
- (↔︎) CF Montreal 0.11
- (↔︎) Philadelphia Union 0.08
- (↔︎) New York Red Bulls 0.00
- More signs of life for an NYRB team that looked lost at about the 1/3 point of the year? The Red Bulls are up to average on the margins and in the goals-only numbers, and while this is the reverse of a typical team from Harrison – poor at home, above-average away – a run of home games to close the year could fuel a sneak into the playoffs.
- (↔︎) Chicago Fire -0.13
- (↑6) Atlanta United FC -0.23
- Atlanta’s been on a climb up the ratings and following through with a move up the table. If this keeps up, you’re seeing the Five Stripes in the playoff field.
- (↑1) Los Angeles Galaxy -0.23
- (↓1) FC Dallas -0.23
- Rough times for Luchi Gonzalez to get his team playing fairly well, but not converting, and get the axe. Alas, it seemed his Burn side had been infected with a little bit of Fire. I think this pun was awful but am not quite sure. We’re gonna leave it.
- (↓3) Orlando City SC -0.26
- (↑3) Real Salt Lake -0.27
- (↓1) Inter Miami CF -0.31
- (↓3) Austin FC -0.32
- (↓2) Vancouver Whitecaps FC -0.34
- (↔︎) Columbus Crew -0.44
- Earning a road draw at the home of the team running away with Supporter’s Shield and not moving up an inch, tough crowd. (In reality, Columbus should have had its doors blown off if not for an elite performance from Eloy Room).
- (↑3) Portland Timbers FC -0.45
- (↔︎) Houston Dynamo -0.47
- (↓2) Fußball Club Cincinnati -0.48
- (↓1) San Jose Earthquakes -0.54
- (↔︎) Toronto FC -0.75
- Being so bad that beating a playoff team isn’t enough to get you within two-tenths of the next-worst team. Ouch.
Club and Country 