Nashville SC

MLS power ratings: Week 22, 2021

For an explainer, hit up the first edition of the 2021 ratings, and if you have additional queries, don’t hesitate to drop me a line on social media. The full table with all the details you could possibly want lives here.

An important reminder: these rankings are a reflection of team strength, not necessarily results. Over/underachieving quality is not only possible, but probable. Underachieving guaranteed for Chicago Fire, in fact. This disclaimer will certainly not prevent a bunch of dudes with Tom Brady avatars and a… fervent desire to not dispel stereotypes about Boston sports fans from telling me what an idiot I am.

  1. (↔︎) New York City FC 1.09
    • Can’t wait for the Brady avatar dudes to tell me how dumb I am this week.
  2. (↔︎) Los Angeles Football Club 0.83
    • LAFC’s incredible gap between performances and results persists: a 2.50-1.01 advantage in expected goals finished as a 3-3 draw (at home, no less!), and – as with the Revs or Fire – the “luck” factor is persistent and consistent enough to be a part of who this team is this year. From a results (rather than performances) perspective, this is just the No. 20 team in the league.
  3. (↔︎) DC United 0.80
  4. (↔︎) Minnesota United FC 0.62
  5. (↔︎) New England Revolution 0.59
    • No significant drop for the Revs this week because from an xG perspective, they actually exceeded expectations at Yankee Stadium. The results converging to the advanced numbers (which is in most cases the expectations) won’t happen completely with Matt Turner in goal, but there’s a chance NYC or New England mounts a serious challenge for the No. 1 spot in the East.
  6. (↔︎) Sporting Kansas City 0.50
  7. (↔︎) Seattle Sounders 0.43
  8. (↔︎) Nashville SC 0.40
    • Strong performance from Nashville and weak one from Seattle wasn’t enough to bump NSC up at all. However, the gap between the “contenders” tier (which ends here) and the next tier is not fairly large.
  9. (↑1) Colorado Rapids 0.13
  10. (↓1) Orlando City SC 0.05
  11. (↑1) New York Red Bulls -0.03
  12. (↑3) CF Montreal -0.05
    • Spanking a rival is always good. Montreal also held Toronto to largely nothing offensively (TFC’s goal came on just 0.35 expected goals), which is the bigger factor here.
  13. (↓1) Philadelphia Union -0.05
  14. (↓1) Chicago Fire -0.15
  15. (↑1) FC Dallas -0.15
  16. (↑3) Los Angeles Galaxy -0.30
  17. (↓3) Austin FC -0.31
    • This is generally a pretty bad team. But without some late (and largely meaningless) fireworks, this could have quite easily finished as by far the worst performance for any team this season.
  18. (↓1) Inter Miami CF -0.32
  19. (↑1) Vancouver Whitecaps FC -0.33
  20. (↓2) Fußball Club Cincinnati -0.42
  21. (↑1) Columbus Crew -0.44
  22. (↑1) Atlanta United FC -0.44
  23. (↑1) Houston Dynamo -0.45
  24. (↑1) San Jose Earthquakes -0.49
  25. (↓4) Real Salt Lake -0.54
    • The scoreboard has been fairly harsh to Vancouver at times this year, sure. But this was a pasting any way you look at it (even with an own-goal adding insult to injury).
  26. (↑1) Portland Timbers FC -0.54
  27. (↓1) Toronto FC -0.61

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