Nashville SC

MLS power ratings: Week 21, 2021

For an explainer, hit up the first edition of the 2021 ratings, and if you have additional queries, don’t hesitate to drop me a line on social media. The full table with all the details you could possibly want lives here.

An important reminder: these rankings are a reflection of team strength, not necessarily results. Over/underachieving quality is not only possible, but probable. Underachieving guaranteed for Chicago Fire, in fact. This disclaimer will certainly not prevent a bunch of dudes with Tom Brady avatars and a… fervent desire to not dispel stereotypes about Boston sports fans from telling me what an idiot I am.

  1. (↔︎) New York City FC 1.10
  2. (↔︎) Los Angeles Football Club 0.79
    • LAFC’s inability to live up to underlying metrics has become nothing short of incredible. If Bob Bradley’s team were only slightly below average in those respects, it’d look like an elite side.
  3. (↔︎) DC United 0.70
  4. (↑2) Minnesota United FC 0.61
    • Although the game ended in a scoreless draw, Minnesota United absolutely thrashed Sporting Kansas City in xG terms and moves up accordingly. As with a couple other clubs that seem out of place near the top, they can either regress to average finishing, or be a massive disappointment at the end of the day.
  5. (↔︎) New England Revolution 0.56
    • Can’t wait to get the complaints this week! It’s worth noting that the Revs’ overachievement of their underlying numbers – unlike with some other clubs – is sustainable, given that it’s based upon an elite goalkeeper.
  6. (↓2) Sporting Kansas City 0.53
  7. (↔︎) Seattle Sounders 0.45
  8. (↔︎) Nashville SC 0.32
  9. (↑1) Orlando City SC 0.04
  10. (↓1) Colorado Rapids 0.04
    • Raps got a victory somewhat against the run of play against RSL – at home that’s not gonna move the needle. Much of RSL’s production came at even or leading gamestates, too, so it’s not like Rapids held on to ride out a victory by absorbing pressure. YMMV as to whether that’s good or bad.
  11. (↔︎) Philadelphia Union 0.02
  12. (↔︎) New York Red Bulls -0.02
  13. (↑3) Chicago Fire -0.13
  14. (↔︎) Austin FC -0.20
  15. (↔︎) Montreal Impact -0.20
  16. (↓3) FC Dallas -0.21
  17. (↔︎) Inter Miami CF -0.28
  18. (↑2) Fußball Club Cincinnati -0.36
    • Seeing IMCF and Cincinnati right next to each other in the ratings and not have that take place at the very bottom of the list is somewhat jarring.
  19. (↓1) Los Angeles Galaxy -0.37
    • The numbers have been major Galaxy skeptics all year, and if the results start dipping to meet that, it could be trouble. The return of Chicharito could help maintain that level above the underlying numbers… but they’re overachieving bigtime defensively right now, and I don’t see sustainability there.
  20. (↑3) Vancouver Whitecaps FC -0.38
  21. (↔︎) Real Salt Lake -0.41
  22. (↓3) Columbus Crew -0.42
    • If someone can explain to me the why behind the what of Columbus being pretty terrible, I’m all ears.
  23. (↓1) Atlanta United FC -0.42
  24. (↑3) Houston Dynamo -0.44
    • A big xG advantage for the Dynamo… but a draw against FC Dallas. Given their standing in the league, that’s probably not bad for either of them, tbh.
  25. (↓1) San Jose Earthquakes -0.47
  26. (↓1) Toronto FC -0.56
  27. (↓1) Portland Timbers FC -0.57
    • The numbers have disliked Portland all year, and I guess the actual W-L-D results haven’t been so far off. But it’s gotten bad.

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