Nashville made big strides in the Eastern Conference by knocking off the previous leader last weekend. There’ll be a different test on the road tomorrow.
The essentials
Opponent: Indy Eleven (2-1-0, 2 GF, 1 GA so far in 2018)
The Line: Indy +102, Nashville +200, Draw +259
Time, Location: Noon EDT (11 a.m. CDT) • Lucas Oil Field, Indianapolis
Event: USL Regular season
Weather: Climate controlled, yo.
Watch: Watch locally on MyTV30 or stream on ESPN Plus (which, impressively, does not have links to games if you aren’t logged in. Impressively bad product launch, guys). See the list of soccer bars in Nashville if you want to watch remotely.
Tailgate: In Indy, head to Gate 10 Events, just south of the stadium. Otherwise, your atandard soccer bar.
Follow: @NashvilleSC, @ClubCountryUSA (on-site!), USL gametracker page, @Austin_Gwin, @IndyEleven.
Etc.: Q&A with Kevin Johnston of SocTakes. Gary Smith presser video. Kosuke Kimura and Lebo Moloto video. Transcript of all three.
Elsewhere: Speedway Soccer Pod with SocTakes. Notebook from 615 Formation. Preview from an Indy blog with an exceptionally long name. USL’s Eastern Conference notebook.
Indy Eleven
This is essentially a totally new team when compared to the one that took the field in the NASL last year, so it’s tough to say too much positive or (mostly) negative based on last year’s team. However, there are some pieces to like for Indy… and a lot to be questioning at this point, particularly “health in the back.”
Let’s start there. While Owain Fon Williams won an ill-gotten save of the week (penalty saves are at least 50% luck, people! The timing of this one was understandably huge, I guess) in the USL fan vote, the group in front of him is looking pretty haggard. Centerback Karl Ouimette is suspended this week after a red card against NCFC a week ago. Carlyle Mitchell exited the game with injury, so that’s potentially two centerbacks down (and certainly one, with another at less than 100%). The fullbacks are solid, with left-sided Tyler Pasher also capable of moving up and making an impact in midfield, but with the uncertainty in the middle, his known commodity in the back might be a good idea.
Speaking of moving up, the forward line – despite scoring just two goals in three games thus far – has plenty of talent. Like Nashville, there’s a chance it just clicks at some point and these guys start pouring in goals.
“[Justin] Braun has got himself back into the group last week with McInerney’s suspension,” Nashville SC head coach Gary Smith said. “Jack McInerney himself has played at a very good level: he’s a good goal-scorer. [Eugene] Starikov, who I’ve run into in the NASL is a talented boy. [Soony] Saad, [Tyler] Pasher, they’ve got a wealth of talent there in that forward line. [Zach] Steinberger had an excellent season last year with Jacksonville. All of these guys are really capable, and whilst no away game is easy, I think this will be one of the tougher ones that we run into.”
McInerney and Pasher have the two goals, with an assist each from Braun and Saad. Unfortunately, at this point in the year, it’s tough to say who’s going to be a game-in, game-out contributor up front and who’s going to get a goal every now and then.
In that respect, Nashville SC and Indy Eleven seem to have a lot in common. They’re both new teams to the league (the Eleven were in USL last year) and with all the roster turnover in Naptown, both teams are essentially totally new rosters.
“At the moment, they don’t look to be firing on all cylinders,” Smith said. “I hope the weekend doesn’t change [that]. At some point, as we’re finding out, you start to hit a little bit more fluency, a bit more appreciation with a group, some relationships are built, and I think that’s where they are. They looked to have a lot more joy down the left last week: with Ayoze [García Pérez] and Pasher, we’ll see whether that stays the same, I think that’s the first time that they’ve played together.”
Again, at some point, they may just snap out of it and pour in goals. Against this Nashville defense, I find that unlikely, but we shall see.
The Boys in Gold
Nobody came out and said it, but I got the impression from this week’s NSC media availability that there’s going to be a bit of a philosophical change for Gary Smith’s side.
“We train there [Friday],” Smith explained. “I’ll get a good idea of what the surface is like, and I’ll make all my decisions on the team.
“I don’t want to make decisions based on what happened last weekend on the field that we have, which is immaculate for the most part, and dimensions that we’re very adept to. This is different, so we need to be different, and we need to be prepared for that.”
I’ll get into the over-arching implications about Indy’s field in a moment, but certainly that sounds like a coach who intends to change his tactics based on an extremely small, rather bumpy pitch. If it lives up (down) to his expectations, might we see a lineup less suited for speed, more suited for playing in small spaces, and more focused on defending with a bit of counter-attack ability? I think so.
So, the small (70×100) field, a crappy turf surface because it’s primarily used for NFL (and high school football, etc.) and apparently isn’t well taken-care of… the Nashville folks certainly don’t want to insult the field, but it’s clear that’s something they’re planning to have to adjust to.
“It’s a smaller field, a tight field, and then it’s turf – and it isn’t this [at Vanderbilt] turf, I’ve heard,” said defender Kosuke Kimura. “It’s going to be bumpy and it’s going to be hard for us to maintain possession and get that rhythm going. One of those games, that’s what away games are.”
I think a bit more use of the 5-3-2 as something other than a defensive posture seems like it would make sense: it prevents NSC from giving up a goal, takes away one of their key threats in Pasher, and doesn’t sacrifice nearly as much offensively, since even if NSC played with wider, faster personnel, there’s not really anywhere for them to get out and run: the space is constricted.
On the other hand, it doesn’t sound like Lebo Moloto expects to go back to the odd backline:
With the [changed] formation, there’s more guys up top in it,” he said. “Instead of retaining possession and waiting for the other wingbacks to join, now we’ve got Alan [Winn], we’ve got Taylor [Washington], got [Michael] Cox. I think that having the wings has been probably our success going forward. Obviously, us getting comfortable with each other too.”
That certainly plays the changed formation to be a more permanent adjustment to the realities of USL life. Even if that’s the case, though, the 5-3-2 can be broken out situationally. I still think it makes a bit of sense in this one.
Projected lineups
So, what will we see?
Like I billed above, NSC comes out in a 5-3-2 – but it’s with the personnel that allows them to flip easily into the 4-4-2 if they want. I do think a bit of a wrinkle emerges: instead of having a No. 10 like Moloto in the midfield, Alan Winn is played as a bit of a free winger. He’ll be able to find room on either wing (given the strength of the defensive left, probably his left wing, which allows him to shoot with his preferred right foot after cutting in) to get space and find the ball. If the 4-4-2 is deemed a better fit, Washington movesa up to midfield and Winn is deployed on the right.
Because of that, NSC goes with a bit more of a target striker, with Moloto running onto Tucker Hume’s hold-up play and heading ability as the second striker.
Predictions
Indy has offensive talent, bat man have they looked toothless through three games. Nearly half their shots come from inside the box (they took 10(!) from outside the box against Cincinnati, for example, among their 22 with only six on target), and they don’t seem to threaten a whole lot – though they performed much better against NCFC last week, that was still the first time that side had given up only one goal in a game.
I don’t think Indy can score (unless they suddenly snap out of this malaise), especially against what appears to be a borderline elite defense in Nashville SC. Meanwhile, the Boys in Gold are hardly the top offense in the USL, but there are pieces there to break out, as well.
- Nashville gets an early goal, coming on a strike from Lebo Moloto (who finally puts one in after leading the team in shots to date) off a headed assist from Tucker Hume. Hockey assist on the longball goes to Justin Davis.
- Indy looks threatening for the remainder of the first half, with Nashville’s shaky play when protecting a lead making a third straight appearance.
- NSC changes tactics at halftime, and puts a second goal on the board from a set piece.
- Indy gets one back around the 75th minute, with one of NSC’s patented breakdowns at the back finally getting punished for the first time in a while. Matt Pickens doesn’t have to do much in this game, but that one still manages to get through.
- NSC holds on.
I have a 2-1 win for Nashville SC. The form for the Boys in Gold is better than that for Indy Eleven at this point, even if Indianapolis might be the better team in the long run. It’s hard to see a way Indy scores, while the injuries at the back make a path to Nashville goals a whole lot more obvious.
Club and Country 