Hey, game time is rapidly approaching! Mini-preview o-clock.
The essentials
Opponent: Columbus Crew (8-6-4)
Time, Location: Saturday, June 24, 6:30 p.m. CDT (7:30 local) • Columbus, Ohio
Weather: 80ºF, 9% chance of rain, 61% humidity, negligible wind
Follow: MLS MatchCenter • @ClubCountryUSA • @NashvilleSC
Watch/Stream • Listen: MLS Season Pass on Apple TV (free), FS1, Telemundo • 104.5 The Zone
Match officials: Referee: Filip Dujic. Assistants: Ian Mckay, Kevin Klinger. Fourth official: Alexandra Billeter. Video Assistants: Alejandro Mariscal, Jeff Muschik
Vegas Odds: Nashville SC +278, Draw +268, Columbus -109
Etc.: Rate, review, subscribe.
| Stat | Nashville SC | Columbus Crew |
| Record (W-L-D) | 10-4-5 (1.84 PPG) 2nd East | 8-6-4 (1.56 PPG) 6th East |
| Recent form (most recent first) | L-W-D-W-W | D-W-W-W-L |
| GF/Game | 1.47 | 2.00 |
| GA/Game | 0.74 | 1.44 |
| xG Power (pre-midweek) | +0.16 (9th MLS) | +0.23 (8th MLS) |
| G Power | +0.70 (1st MLS) | +0.39 (5th MLS) |
| “Luck” | +0.54 (3rd MLS) | +0.16 (13th MLS) |
| Offense | -0.07 (17th MLS) | +0.14 (10th MLS) |
| Defense | -0.23 (8th MLS) | -0.09 (12th MLS) |
| Venue advantage | -0.41 Home (21st MLS) | +0.87 Away (4th MLS) |
| Injury report | OUT: F Teal Bunbury (lower body), D Nick DePuy (leg, season) QUEST.: D Lukas MacNaughton (lower body) INT’L: M Aníbal Godoy (Panama), W Fafa Picault (Haiti), W Jacob Shaffelburg (Canada) | OUT: M Will Sands (knee) QUEST: D Milos Degenek (ankle) INT’L: M Kevin Molino (Trinidad and Tobago), M Aidan Morris (USA), F Jacen Russell-Rowe (Canada) |
Columbus Crew
Nashville last faced Columbus just a month ago, so not a ton has changed other than a pretty good run of form for both teams, as well as the international absences (and those to injury). Defender Milos Degenek still hasn’t played (while he been upgraded to questionable), nor has midfielder Will Sands. Kevin Molino is back… but now gone again on international duty, joined by midfielder Aidan Morris and forward Jacen Russell-Rowe.
Here’s what I wrote as a big-picture view last time:
Columbus is like a less-extreme version of Atlanta United. Good attack, bad defense, incredibly reliant on one or two guys for the former, perhaps to the detriment of the latter. The Crew’s offense isn’t quite as good, and the defense not nearly as bad (they’ve bene unlucky there), and it’s worth noting that the stars – attacking mid Lucas Zelarayan and striker Cucho Hernandez – are not quite as transcendent as Atlanta’s Thiago Almada and Luiz Araujo, but also they’re not so single-handedly bad at defense as to almost outweigh their (incredible) attacking contributions.
In fact, the defense isn’t really that bad in an opponent-adjusted sense (eighth in the league), and their goalkeeping hasn’t been bad either: with Eloy Room in-and-out of the lineup, 2022 SuperDraft pick Patrick Schulte has played the vas majority of minutes, and performed much much better than the Curaçaoan steady hand.
May 27
That basically remains the case: the Crew’s wins and losses have started to catch up to the underlying stats a bit, but the offense is still operating at a blistering pace, while even four games undefeated since the loss in Nashville has seen 1.5 goals against, on average. Schulte remains basically average – 104% of xG against is converted – but the Crew gives up a fair number of chances, especially considering that the four-game unbeaten streak has been against the moribund offenses of Colorado, Charlotte, Chicago, and NYCFC (all in the bottom 10 in adjusted xG).
CBs Steven Moreira and Gustavo Vallecilla have been good and very interrupt-y in style – with a rotating cast of guys between them (see Milos Degenek’s injury above) in the back three, or in stead of one of them. Philip Quinton, who is in all ways below-average – or sometimes worse – was the guy against Cincinnati last weekend, and unless that poor defensive performance spooked Wilfred Nancy from playing him again, will lkely be there again tonight.
May 27
Moreira is still a starter – usually in the middle, while Malte Amundsen and Sean Zawadski have emerged as the starters flanking him.
Darlington Nagbe and Aidan Morris are the guys you expect in the central midfield, while the wingbacks have been extremely rotated, with only Mo Farsi eclipsing 1200 minutes so far… and basically nobody else eclipsing even half that. Those guys have largely been liabilities in service, fwiw.
May 27
The Crew didn’t have a midweek game, so it remains to be seen what the plan is for accommodating Morris’s absence during the Gold Cup.
Zelarayan has not been quite the Walking Free Kick Conversion that he has been in recent years, with none of his 6 goals (on 4.81 xG) coming from a dead ball, though he has hit a pair of penalties. Cucho has just one goal on 2.18 xG from the run of play, for what it’s worth, though you could easily imagine both his xG/96 (which is at just 2/3 of that number in the run of play in comparison to last year) and conversion rate (obvs been bad, he was not last year and there’s no reason to project that he lacks anything in that department) getting back to normal.
May 27
Chucho Hernandez and Christian Ramirez have alternated at striker and as one of the wingers in the 3-4-3, though both are typically in the starting lineup (Zelarayan is the other winger/AM). It’s just a matter of who plays where.
Keys to the game
- Don’t give up free kicks in dangerous areas. They have not been great this year. I am not tempting the fates with Zelarayan and Cucho over a dead ball.
- Honestly, you’re gonna play for the draw so let’s just get it over with. I’m realistic here.
- Exploit the lack of Morris. Columbus hardly even remembers what it’s like when he’s not on the pitch. So make them pay.
- MVP form. I would simply let Hany Mukhtar do incredible things on the ball (whether that’s scoring himself or feeding his speed merchants on the outside and over the top).
- Set pieces. Ever has it been, ever shall it be.
Prediction
Nashville SC 0, Columbus Crew 0
Club and Country 