At long last, Nashville SC will complete a first round-robin of the Eastern Conference by taking on the only team it has yet to play (Louisville v. Toronto is the only other Eastern Conference matchup that hasn’t taken place yet this year, and that will also change this evening).
By some metrics, the Kickers are the worst team in the East. Unfortunately, that hasn’t proven to be a guarantee for NSC this year.
The essentials
Opponent: Richmond Kickers (6-16-3 USL). 23 GF, 55 GA so far in 2018, 14th in USL East, 14th in USL East Power Ratings and 33rd (that’s dead last) in combined-table Pure Power.
Recent form: RIC (L-W-L-L-L) NSC (L-D-W-D-L)
The Line: Nashville SC -476, Draw +446, Richmond Kickers +1042
Time, Location: 7:30 p.m. • First Tennessee Park
Event: USL Regular season
Weather: 89ºF, 15% chance of rain, 49% humidity, 5 MPH Southerly winds
Watch: Locally on MyTV30, stream with a subscription to ESPN+. See the list of soccer bars in Nashville if you want to watch in a game atmosphere.
Tailgate: With the Assembly in the green space just East of the stadium, the Roadies at Pastime.
Listen: Locally on 94.9 Game2 in English, 96.7 El Jefe FM en Español.
Follow: @NashvilleSC, @ClubCountryUSA, USL gametracker page, @RichmondKickers, #NSHvRIC
Elsewhere: Nashville SC preview, USL preview.
Richmond Kickers
First things first: how is a team that has two sides behind it in the Eastern Conference table alone considered the worst in the league? Well, they don’t just lose; they get destroyed. The Kickers give up nearly three goals/game on the road, and nearly two at home. That’s despite a relatively low strength of schedule (just a bit below average), and even worse, most of their greatest struggles have come recently.
Midway through May, Richmond was 3-4-1 with a -4 goal differential – not great, but respectable. Since that time, they’ve gone 3-12-2 with a -28 goal differential. That’s, uh, that’s worse. They haven’t scored on the road since mid-July, and haven’t kept a clean sheet on the road all year (they’ve only kept two total: home games against Tampa Bay and Charleston). I know Nashville fans are frustrated with performances since the Nissan draw to Cincinnati, but it could be so, so much worse. In its last outing, Richmond lost 6-0 at home to Louisville.
The Kickers list their lineup as either a 4-2-3-1 or a 4-1-4-1. Central defensive midfielder Braeden Troyer features in both of those, leading the team in minutes played and having missed only one game. Winger Brian Shriver is right on his heels in minutes, and plays mostly right wing in either formation, though he can also line up on the left. Raul Gonzalez is a utility player: third on the team in minutes played, and plays right back, central defensive midfield, and right wing (when Shriver’s on the left or at striker). Central defender Mikeil Williams is another regular fixture in the lineup – captain Conor Shanosky is his usual partner back there, but has missed the last five games for the Kickers. At the back, the Kickers have played two keepers, but it’s been Trevor Spangenberg in the past several games, rather than DC United loanee Travis Worra.
Given the overall quality of the team, it should not surprise you to learn that these guys aren’t performing super-great. Spangenberg has given up 23 goals to 41 saves, Troyer and Williams have four and three yellow cards and 44(!) and 23 fouls committed, respectively.
Shriver is one of the few who’s doing his part for the team, with seven goals to lead the way (striker Heviel Cordoves, who gets the plurality of minutes up top with Shriver and a rotating cast of characters also seeing time there, has five) as well a a team-leading seven assists. The 5-11, 146-pounder is a little dribbly guy to a large extent, trying to take on players with a moderate success rate (and going down a lot, but only having drawn 13 fouls all year, which is stunning to me for a guy with his style of play). Largely, if you don’t let shriver beat you, there’s not a whole lot else Richmond is going to be able to do. He cuts in to score with his right foot when he lines up on the left, and is relatively cross-happy from the right.
The Boys in Gold
Saturday night sucked. A full-strength Nashville team probably wins that game, but a howler from a keeper (who, in fairness, may have been screened by one of his defenders, but to have absolutely no look at a shot that came from outside the box is poor either way) and a stupid second-yellow from a wingback within eight first-half minutes meant that we’ll never know. Even when it looked like NSC had clawed back to salvage a point, a really poor reversion to early-season form from Liam Doyle turned a 4-on-3 into a 4-on-2, and the recovery couldn’t clear the ball after each of two Matt Pickens saves, and he had no shot the third time around.
So: if you need a chance to recover from that, there perhaps isn’t a team you’d rather be playing than Richmond (though Toronto is slightly worse on the road than the Kickers). If this isn’t a bounceback game… that’s trouble for Nashville SC.
There’s a little bit of lineup trouble anyway: with Ish Jome’s suspension after the Saturday red card, and Taylor Washington’s inclusion on the injury report as “questionable,” two of the most credible wingbacks on the team are out. That puts a serious damper in the recent change to a 3-5-2 formation. Does Gary Smith run out Ryan James on the left and Kosuke Kimura on the right, and have no subs available at either post (at least subs who can credibly both defend and get forward)? Does Justin Davis play a wingback spot that he’s less natural in, allowing Liam Doyle and Bradley Bourgeois to be joined by London Woodberry in central defense (diminishing depth at that position instead)?
Or do we see a one-game return to the 4-4-2, which allows Davis to play left fullback, Kimura on the right, and James able to come off the bench for either of them? I predicted a reversion a couple games ago – and I know it’s not wise to flip back and forth between various systems rather than getting well-drilled at any of them – but it really does make sense with this situation. It allows new signing Kris Tyrpak to get on the field as a winger (without needing to have the defensive responsibility of a wingback), and gets Alan Winn in a role to potentially do the same.
Meanwhile, you may not need your best available talent to beat this team. Using anything less may end up being aesthetically displeasing, but if ever there was to give guys minutes to get them comfortable in a specific role, this might be it.
Projected lineups
So… I don’t know. The system is more important than the formation itself, however the players actually line up. I’m just not sure Nashville SC has the natural forward-and-back wingbacks to play with three at the back, and Richmond shouldn’t be too huge a task to defend with a four-man backline.
Richmond comes out with only one defensive midfielder (because quite frankly, Nashville is not the most dangerous offensive team they’ve seen this year).
Predictions
This is likely to be a slog, win or (god forbid) lose. Nashville can win without trying to look pretty while doing it, and when given that opportunity, they’re likely to take it.
- Nashville SC scores early. It’s Ropapa Mensah putting the team ahead in the fourth minute, with a feed from Hume in hold-up play.
- Alas, that means the rest of the game plays out pretty defensively.
- Your subs: Akinyode for Tyrpak (60th), Allen for Mensah (68th), Woodberry for Moloto (70th).
- Despite all that, Allen puts the cherry on top in the final few minutes of the game. A cross from Justin Davis on an overlapping run (though not too deep – we’ve learned the lesson of Saturday) finds him in the penalty area, and he turns and shoots, finding twine from the run of play for the first time since June.
Nashville SC wins, 2-0. They probably could win by more, but certainly an early goal will have them just trying to get out of the game with all three points and without expending too much energy with three games in eight days.
Club and Country 