While Nashville SC doesn’t take the field tonight, many teams int he Eastern Conference do. That includes those against whom the Boys in Gold are jockeying for playoff position. What is the best outcome for Nashville in each of those games? Let’s take a look…
Ottawa Fury @ Bethlehem Steel
4:00 p.m. CDT • Watch/follow
Both the Fury and the Steel are ahead of NSC, though primarily on the basis of more games played. Bethlehem is one point ahead with three more games played (will be four after tonight) than Nashville. Ottawa is tied on points but ahead on the first tiebreaker (which is wins instead of goal differential, because the USL makes bad decisions), and two more games played than NSC (will be three after tonight).
With both in close proximity to Nashville on the table, splitting the points here is the ideal outcome for NSC – which would then have the opportunity to pass both of them (with multiple games in-hand) with a win over the Steel Saturday. The Steel getting a draw, rather than losing, would also make them a little less desperate to maintain playoff position going into Saturday’s game, as well.
FC Cincinnati @ Atlanta United 2
6:00 p.m. CDT • Watch/follow
Cincinnati is going to win the conference, and likely win it by a large margin. Atlanta 2 is going to fail to make the playoffs, and probably won’t get remotely close (their best-case scenario – all the teams directly ahead of them losing every game, which isn’t possible because many of them play each other – would see them need 21-plus points in the next 12 games). So, this one really feels like a semi-irrelevant game.
That said, on a feelingsball basis, you probably want two things to happen: Atlanta 2 looking dangerous enough to remain a credible threat to other teams on the schedule, and FC Cincinnati still doing well enough to earn the win. The latter makes the final outcome of the table a little more obvious, and puts teams in the 2-4 (home playoff games) positions in a mindset of competing against the teams below them to maintain their positions, rather than competing upwards against Cincinnati, which makes them feel slightly more vulnerable to a run from NSC.
Toronto FC II @ Indy Eleven
6:00 p.m. CDT • Watch/follow
Indy is in sixth place in the table, just one point ahead of Nashville (though they hold the first tiebreaker, wins, over NSC right now). You’d like to see them do poorly against Toronto FC II, which has the opportunity to *checks notes* still remain one of the worst teams in USL.
A Toronto upset is the best-case scenario here, though not a particularly realistic one to root for. At the same time, those rooting against Nashville when they traveled to Rochester probably felt the same way going in, and we all know how that turned out (unless we’ve actively chosen to forget). Even just splitting the points here would be pretty helpful to NSC.
Personally, I’m half-cheering for Toronto to lose, to get them one step closer to official elimination from the playoffs.
Tampa Bay Rowdies @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds
6:00 p.m. CDT • Watch/follow
Pittsburgh is second in the East, nine points clear of Nashville without even needing more games played to get there. Is it realistic for NSC to make up that gap with each team having only 11 games to play? In all honesty, probably not. In that instance, it might be better for them to simply get the win to have Nos. 3 and 4 in the table (Charleston and Louisville, respectively) looking down, rather than up, as mentioned in the Cincy section.
Especially given that Tampa is brutal on the road (not great at home, either!), you’ll probably be frustrated hoping for a Rowdies upset. There’s no outcome here that’s particularly satisfying for Nashville, but I think a Riverhounds win – and particularly a shutout, which makes Nashville’s ability to score only one of two road goals in Steel City this year even better – is the best option.
Louisville City FC @ Charlotte Independence
6:30 p.m. CDT • Watch/follow
Louisville is the only playoff competitor in the East that has played just 22 games (ATL UTD 2 and Toronto II are the only others with that few in the books), and sits on 40 points. Charlotte has 29 points with 25 games played. Your confidence in the Independence catch Nashville in the table should determine your rooting interest here.
If you don’t think Nashville can be run down from behind (I don’t, which is more about Charlotte than about Nashville), you want Charlotte to drop points to make that a more difficult task. If you think NSC is basically safe for the playoffs – at least in terms of Charlotte being one of the teams that can compete with them – you want Louisville to drop points to make third and/or fourth place realistic for the Boys in Gold.
I’d pull for the Charlotte upset in this one, but splitting the points in a draw wouldn’t be half-bad, either.
What will you be watching tonight? Who will you be rooting for?
Club and Country 