USL Power ratings: July 23, 2018

Nashville’s (slight) drop continues, the East converging toward a top six, and the situation in the West remains hectic as always. Don’t forget to follow the site on Twitter, Instagram, and Facebook for all the content on USL, US Soccer, and Nashville SC.

Table Power

This rating method counts only opposition played and points attained in a given game – it is best used as a proxy for how the table is likely to play out at the end of the year.

USL East power rankings:

1. Cincinnati 2.89
2. Pittsburgh 2.55
3. Louisville 2.55
4. Charleston 2.42 (+1)
5. Nashville 2.25 (-1)
6. Indianapolis 2.10
7. Ottawa 2.01 (+1)
8. NYRB 1.94 (-1)
9. Bethlehem 1.76
10. Penn 1.70 (+1)
11. Charlotte 1.69 (-1)
12. Tampa Bay 1.60 (+1)
13. North Carolina 1.59 (-1)
14. Richmond 1.33
15. Atlanta 1.16
16. Toronto 0.22

Nashville’s poor run of form continues (though it’s been greatly overstated – despite four losses in the last six games, NSC is easily on pace to be a playoff team, and not far off from hosting a first-round game) after the loss to Ottawa, while Charleston’s win over Pittsburgh was only the second time the Riverhounds have been beaten all year.

There were single-position switches down the table: Ottawa passed the Red Bulls thanks to that victory over Nashville, Charlotte slid behind Penn, while Tampa’s big win over Indy finally showed some of the signs of what the Rowdies are expected to be. Still, there weren’t major swings here (and shouldn’t be, given that we have a pretty robust dataset at this point).

Ottawa and New York are currently projected to be the last two playoff teams behind the same six that have been pretty comfortably in for the past few weeks. There’s obviously enough volatility here that the second half of the season can be a whole new ballgame.

USL West power rankings

1. Real Monarchs 2.98
2. Phoenix Rising 2.55
3. Reno 1868 2.45 (+1)
4. Sacramento Republic 2.40 (-1)
5. Orange County 2.40
6. Swope Park 2.14
7. San Antonio 2.01 (+2)
8. Fresno FC 1.89
9. Portland Timbers 1.87 (-2)
10. Colorado Springs 1.71
11. St. Louis 1.65
12. Las Vegas Lights 1.63
13. OKC Energy 1.47
14. LA Galaxy II 1.31
15. Rio Grande Valley 1.24
16. Seattle Sounders 0.91
17. Tulsa Roughnecks 0.89

Another loss for Real Monarchs probably puts them within poaching distance of the other teams in the top five by the time the year plays out. One of them would have to go on a pretty nice run though, and with more of the season having been played in the West than in the East (nearly 62% of games in the books, compared to 55% in the East), there’s not unlimited time here.

Only a couple big swings here. Sacramento tying OKC while Reno was idle meant a flip there. San Antonio FC banging Real Monarchs jumped them up a couple positions, while the Timbers losing to Las Vegas dropped them from their spot into the one vacated by SAFC.

I’d say there are nine teams in pretty good position to make the playoffs: the top five is remaining relatively steady, while obviously three of the next four are going to make it while one is left out. Swope Park is trending downward while Fresno is heading in the opposite direction. It remains to be seen if those trends hold.

Pure Power

This rating method uses almost an opposite philosophy: focusing only on goals scored for/against in each game, without attention to individual results. It looks at the quality of offensive and defensive performance against each given opponent, with a home/road component attached. It’s more effective for predictive purposes in single games, rather than necessarily projecting the end-of-year table.

Nashville’s downward trend carries over to this ranking method as well, though once again it’s important to note that the sky isn’t falling here: they’re still the fifth-best team in the league when all you look at is scoring margin. Cincinnati was a big climber primarily due to the out-of-town scoreboard (their win over NYRBII was almost exactly average). Pittsburgh climbed slightly despite a second loss on the year, primarily because of Nashville’s drop.

Down the table, Louisville’s recent slide halted in a major way, and they’re up three spots to No. 8 in the league. Sacramento fell significantly to help facilitate that.

Ottawa makes a big climb, with the stoppage-time goal against Nashville turning that from “very nice result” to “easily their second-best game of the year.” The Fury have been rising slightly in recent weeks anyway, and a statement victory could help solidify their position as a likely playoff team. A semi-tough stretch to end the year is softened by two games still to come against Toronto II.

What it means for Nashville SC

NSC’s fall continues, but the hand-wringing about it is way over the top: this is still one of the USL’s best sides. Even if you looked only at points per game (without any sort of adjustment for schedule strength – they continue to have the toughest past slate, though the gap is closing fast and games against Atlanta and Toronto this week should end that), they’re the fourth-best team in the East.

“Can’t compete” is an objectively bad level of analysis. All it takes is one good result to make people feel a whole lot better. Indeed, if Alan Winn doesn’t miss the penalty against Ottawa Saturday evening, and the game ends with a 1-0 victory like it probably would have in that situation, the pearls aren’t even being clutched this morning. One kick changes the result in a huge way, obviously, but a smarter level of analysis recognizes that there isn’t a huge difference in the team’s quality between those two outcomes.

That said, the slide is officially real. Wins against Atlanta and Toronto should be on the way, and should stave it off quite a bit. Like recent results may be misleadingly negative, though, those would be misleadingly positive (except inasmuch as they’re just a correction to the schedule strength NSC has already had). The truth is somewhere in between, naturally.

I think a good goal for Nashville over the remainder of the season is to host a first-round playoff game. Finishing second or third in the league isn’t out of the question, but any sort of margin for error there (and the games in-hand that would have let Nashville compete to win the East) is eliminated.