It’s homestand time, folks. Fortunately, it begins against one of the USL East’s worst teams in North Carolina FC. Can the Boys in Gold take care of business?
The essentials
Opponent: North Carolina FC (4-6-2, 17 GF, 17 GA so far in 2018, 13th in USL East, 14th in USL East Power Ratings)
The Line: Nashville SC -192, Draw +277, NCFC +447
Time, Location: 7:30 p.m. CDT • First Tennessee Park
Event: USL Regular season
Weather: 83ºF, 4% chance of rain, 62% humidity, 3 MPH Easterly winds
Watch: In person! Locally on MyTV30 or stream on ESPN Plus. See the list of soccer bars in Nashville if you want to watch remotely.
Tailgate: With the Assembly and Eastern Front SG at Von Elrod’s, with The Roadies at Pastime. Music City Supporters at Germantown Depot.
Follow: @NashvilleSC, @ClubCountryUSA, USL gametracker page, @NorthCarolinaFC, #NSHvNC
Elsewhere: USL feature on the upcoming homestand. WKRN giving some pub to the club. Official site preview.
North Carolina FC
NCFC doesn’t look that far behind the pack when you just look at the table: yes, they stand in 13th place, but they’re only five points back from the playoff positions with two games in hand. However, they’ve done it against one of the easier schedules in the conference, including seven home games to only five on the road. There’s a good chance they’re due for some comeuppance when the going gets tougher (for what it’s worth, according to a new advanced rating I’m working on, they’re actually slightly better against conference average on the road than they are at home).
“I think when you look at the type of group they are, they are the type of team that if they can get into a flow and a rhythm, they are a very talented side,” said NSC head coach Gary Smith. “They have a nice shape and organization in possession. Our biggest challenge is to make sure we are assertive as possible at home and control the game.”
That’s secret code (or coachspeak) for “they’re bad, but totally capable of beating us if we want to be complicit in that.” So don’t do it.
The dangermen on offense are Daniel Rios (6G, 1A), Marios Lomis (4G, 2A), Steven Miller (2G, 2A), and Kyle Bekker (1G, 5A). Again, though, it’s worth noting that nearly half of their total scoring comes from two results against bad defensive teams, and both at home: four-goal outings against Atlanta United 2 (including an own goal) and Ottawa Fury (with an own-goal actually going against the Railhawks just this Wednesday evening in a 4-2 contest). Toronto FC II, which it must be noted is almost certainly the worst USL team in modern history, held them to a scoreless draw. This is a group that can put up scores in bunches. It can also lay total eggs.
The defense has been less stout despite the schedule, with 1.42 goals allowed per game, and slightly below that (1.40) when they’re on the road – in fact, stouter defense is part of why they’re slightly better away from WakeMed Soccer Park than they are at it.
Goalkeeper Alex Tambakis has played every minute, and is saving a pretty solid 67.5% of shots faced. When you take the GAA into account along with that… he’s facing a ton of shots (and a bunch of good shots) in each outing. The defense in front of him is not good. Defender Michael Harrington is the only player at the position group among the team’s top seven in minutes played… there’s probably some interrelation between those two factoids.
Bolu Akinyode played for them last year:
“I have friends on the team, so I always look at how guys are doing and obviously wish the best for them because they’re my friends, you know?” he said. “Definitely been keeping up with it. They’re a good team, obviously. Anyone can beat anyone on any day. You still have to go out and perform and I think that’s what we’ll be looking to do here.”
The added motivation factor probably doesn’t come into play here – the nature of the USL is that somebody is facing a former teammate in almost every game – but it’s worth noting that he’ll have a good feel for many of those guys.
The Boys in Gold
Nashville SC is back to full health: after a few weeks with Alan Winn on the injury report (questionable with foot soreness), he’s off it – along with the rest of his teammates. That doesn’t quite mean they have everyone available, though: NSC has sent out five players on loan recently, with backup keeper CJ Cochran headed to Fresno FC on a loan of indefinite (or at least unspecified) length, and a quartet – Michael DeGraffenreidt, Jordan Dunstan, Ramone Howell, and Ian McGrath – at Inter Nashville FC until the end of the NPSL season.
Those guys collectively had zero league minutes, so from a gameday perspective, it won’t impact the Boys in Gold much: they’ll be training with the USL team during the week (presumably with time spent at Inter’s training sessions, as well).
Either way, finally ending a run of midweek-weekend that was… seemingly interminable… will allow the team to be refreshed with a whole week of rest.
“It’s good to get some rest and kind of actually train, because we haven’t had time to
train much over the last couple of weeks,” Akinyode said. “I feel good about it.”
“You can get your legs back a little bit,” added defender Ryan James. “Everyone can kind of get mental preparation back down and it’s nice to have a full week to prepare for a game, so I think everyone’s ready and a little rested for the game Saturday. The energy is very high as it is every game.”
Squad selection will still be a question: despite the long period of rest, it’s worth noting that this will be a weekend-midweek-midweek short stretch (with an Open Cup game at Louisville Wednesday, followed by hosting Indy Eleven the next Tuesday). Against one of the East’s weaker teams, can NSC get away with a squad less than full-strength?
Projected lineups
Forgot to bring the iPad out of town with me (oops). Will update later.
Predictions
NCFC has some quality, but against better teams, they haven’t accomplished much yet this year. Taking care of business against bad teams is meaningful, but so too is flopping just about every time out against good ones.
- Ropapa Mensah and Brandon Allen start the game, and that’s more about resting Lebo Moloto (if possible) than them. If the game goes according to plan, one is replaced by Tucker Hume and the other for a midfielder or defender.
- Both of them score, too! Allen’s comes in the first half, Mensah’s just after halftime to effectively seal the game.
- Bradley Bourgeois set piece goal (or assist). It’s happening sooner or later, folks.
- I can’t decide whether I think NCFC will score. We’ve seen a bit of late-game complacency from Nashville lately (or bunkering too early and giving something up as punishment for under-ambition offensively with a lead), and that’s the likely mechanism here.
Nashville 3, NCFC 1. Boys in Gold take care of business and set up an Open Cup clash with Louisville City – and continue their climb up the Eastern Conference standings.
Club and Country 