Nashville SC

USL power ratings: June 4, 2018

The East only had a bit of shakeup – a top two and next three became a top three and next two, and there was a shuffle in the next tier. The West had a wild week, with the tightly-bunched 2-6 teams rearranging, Galaxy II continuing its climb from worst team in the West to a middle-of-pack side, and more. There’s plenty of other shakeup across the USL. Don’t forget to follow the site on Twitter and Facebook for all the content on USL, US Soccer, and Nashville SC.

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USL East Power Rankings:

  1. Louisville City 3.24
  2. FC Cincinnati 3.03
  3. Nashville SC 2.87
  4. Charleston Battery 2.36
  5. Indy Eleven 2.28
  6. Bethlehem Steel 2.10 (+1)
  7. Charlotte Independence 2.07 (+1)
  8. Pittsburgh Riverhounds 2.00 (-2)
  9. New York Red Bulls II 1.68 (+2)
  10. Ottawa Fury 1.67 (-1)
  11. Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.55 (-1)
  12. Penn FC 1.37
  13. Richmond Kickers 1.33
  14. North Carolina FC 1.27
  15. Atlanta United 2 1.20
  16. Toronto FC II 0.21

A two-win week for Nashville SC moves them comfortably into that top group with Louisville and Cincinnati for the time being. In fact, if New York had held onto its lead against FCC, Nashville would have been in second – and much closer to Louisville than they would have been to third place. A few teams in that next group of solid playoff teams may make a statement to join this top group, but outside of Charleston and Indy potentially joining, it seems pretty solid as the top group.

Are Bethlehem, Charlotte, and Pittsburgh solid enough to round out near-certain playoff participants at seven? I think Pittsburgh is actually consistent enough that they should be able to grind out a bunch of draws when the schedule gets tougher (their results are decent, they’ve just done it against the second-easiest schedule in the East), but I have less faith in Charlotte, which I think drops a bit when they play a tougher slate (they’re currently the only team with an easier go of it than Pittsburgh)… but can the strength of schedule component keep them afloat?

Tampa Bay’s nosedive has been less pronounced that Ottawa’s climb since the first several weeks of the season, but it’s notable, mostly on account of the fact that many considered them a favorite in the East to begin the year. They’ve already axed one coach and lost one of their best players to, uh, becoming the new coach, so there’s turmoil in Cigar City. I have more faith in them to figure it out during the season on account of a pretty expensive roster, but we shall see.

Toronto’s only appearance on the chart is limited to that tiny sliver in the bottom-left corner. I’d love for them to finally win a game, just so I can scale the chart for better stratification in the middle tiers.

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USL West Power Rankings

  1. Real Monarchs 3.83
  2. Sacramento Republic 2.62 (+1)
  3. Phoenix Rising 2.47 (+3)
  4. Portland Timbers 2 2.34 (-2)
  5. Orange County SC 2.29
  6. Swope Park Rangers 2.22 (-2)
  7. San Antonio FC 1.89 (+3)
  8. Reno 1868 1.87 (-1)
  9. Las Vegas Lights 1.76 (+2)
  10. St. Louis FC 1.71 (-1)
  11. Colorado Springs 1.56 (-3)
  12. Fresno FC 1.40 (+2)
  13. LA Galaxy II 1.33 (+2)
  14. Rio Grande Valley 1.26 (-1)
  15. Seattle Sounders 2 1.11 (+2)
  16. Tulsa Roughnecks 0.81
  17. OKC Energy 0.77

The West is obviously quite a bit more volatile than the East on a week-to-week basis, and that seems to make sense with the high-scoring, goalie-making-a-run, llamas-in-the-stadium atmosphere on the far side of the Mississippi.

LA Galaxy II going from “TFCII bad” to “mid-table team that’s fun to watch and plays a lot of kids.” Las Vegas Lights’ week-to-week indecision on whether they want to be a media spectacle or good soccer team. Tons of shakeup in the standings all the time. The only consistent factor is Real Monarchs dominating the top of the table.

The five teams immediately below them have remained tightly banded for a while, and if current form holds, are near-locks for the playoffs (again though, we see more wild results in the West, so who knows?). I also think LVL has the talent to rebound, there may not be limits to Galaxy II’s rise, and there’s some good talent in the next group. If you don’t watch a ton in the West, I’d recommend it, because it’s fun.

Methodology note: No home/away or goals for/against numbers are included in the rankings. It’s strictly points per game multiplied by a strength of schedule component (opponents’ points per game, excluding games against the team of interest).

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