We’ve seen this team once before. Let’s take a second look at the Pittsburgh Riverhounds.
The essentials
Opponent: Pittsburgh Riverhounds (4-0-6, No. 4 in USL Eastern Conference, 12 GF, 5 GA so far in 2018. No. 6 USL East power ratings)
The Line: Pittsburgh +108, Nashville +234. Draw +210
Time, Location: 6:00 p.m. CDT (7 local) • Highmark Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pa.
Event: USL Regular season
Weather: 79° F, 44% chance of rain, 70% humidity. 13 MPH SSE winds.
Watch: Stream on ESPN Plus. See the list of soccer bars in Nashville if you want to watch remotely. The Roadies and Assembly will be at their usual watch locations. This blog site will be watching at The Centennial.
Pregame tailgate: With NSC’s Supporters Groups in Lot R.
Follow: @ClubCountryUSA, @NashvilleSC, @RiverhoundsSC, @Austin_Gwin, #PGHvNSH, USL Gametracker page.
Etc.: Breaking down why Nashville SC tends to cross the ball offensively against the three-man backline. Wrapping up the previous game. Q&A with Justin Ashcraft of Mon Goals. Previously on…
Elsewhere: Golden Goal preview and fearless forecast. USL preview of the week. Riverhounds site official preview. NSC official site preview. Some opposition preview material.
Last time we met
Neither team could do much of anything in the friendly confines of Nissan Stadium (and a light-but-constant drizzle). Nashville had a couple chances late, including a ball saved off the line, but ultimately a 0-0 draw seemed a fair result.
This was really when the “Nashville’s offense is bad” feelings started to settle in, and even though that’s been chipped away recently, we’re still waiting for the true breakout game. In hindsight, ending scoreless against the best defense in the USL is less depressing than it seemed at the time – and if we’d known then that Pittsburgh was going to be so good on that side of the ball, the narrative might not have started, much less persisted to this point.
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Last time around, we had to make some assumptions based on Bob Lilley’s history and some of the personnel holdovers, since it was Pittsburgh’s season-opener. Now, we have a much better picture (and as noted above, the ultimate result is much better-received). The Riverhounds’ defense is good, and their home pitch is a tough place to play.
“It’s probably going to be one of our toughest away games of the year I suspect,” said Nashville SC head coach Gary Smith. “They are a very competitive and organized team. They are on a really good run. They play on a tight turf field, and it will make the game more different than many we have played in so far.”
Indeed, Pittsburgh’s defense is completely unblemished at home so far, with all five goals conceded to date coming on the road. That’s… it’s good. Of course, their home games – indeed, most of their games to date – have come against the dregs of the league: Penn FC and Ottawa (tied for the fewest goals scored in the entire USL with six apiece through ten games), Toronto FC II (the worst team in the entire USL by multiple standard deviations), with Atlanta United 2 and Indy Eleven being something of outliers. Atlanta is terrible but does score a lot en route to losing games, while Indy has a mediocre offense – about on par with Nashville’s – while being decent in terms of earning results.
So, how much of Pittsburgh’s early-season success is on account of actually being good versus the schedule they’ve played? It’s more the latter than Riverhounds fans would care to admit (or even recognize, it seems), but that might not be good enough for NSC to earn a result on the road.
There are plenty of key players in Black and Yellow. However, the main threats to keep an eye on have been revelations to Pittsburgh followers.
“Tommy [Vancaeyezeele] has been all over the field for us this season, and I have been super impressed with his play,” said Mon Goals‘ Justin Ashcraft. “We also were hearing that Romeo Parkes and Dennis Chin were going to be the strikers this season, but Neco Brett has emerged as a really good striker and he just finds the net.”
Brett leads the way with five goals, no other Hound has more than one (a six-way tie – they also benefitted from an own goal against Tampa Bay Rowdies). Four of his goals – and two assists – did come in a four-goal explosion and then a 2-1 nail-biter against the awful TFCII, so consistency hasn’t necessarily been the name of the game in his production: he could be a bit closer to a cog in the machine just a touch ahead of the rest of his teammates when against reasonable opposition.
Van Caeyezeele is primarily a defensive-oriented midfielder or centerback, but does have an assist and a (game-winning, in a 1-0 victory) goal on the year. Defenders Tobi Adewole and Jordan Dover have both been named to the USL Team of the Week once for their defensive efforts (including holding both Atlanta 2 and Indy to zero shots on target – and those aren’t TFC-level bad defenses), and Adewole has the lone goal in a game – a win over Ottawa Fury – himself.
Romeo Parkes is a talented striker whose role on the team has been reduced by the emergence of Brett (leaving him zero opportunities to get yearlong bans from the league thus far). Keepers Daniel Lynd and Kyle Morton have split time a bit with Lynd getting the majority of the time, and neither facing a whole lot of rubber: 14 saves and five goals conceded between them all year.
The Boys in Gold
Nashville SC is in an interesting position: they want to advance in the US Open Cup, but this is a major contest for playoff seeding, and they should want to win it – or at the very least get a result.
Does that mean they go with a stronger lineup tonight, a bit weaker one against a (worse) Penn FC team Saturday, then with everything they’ve got next Wednesday against Colorado Rapids? That’s probably what I’d do. There’s absolutely value – even if it’s only in perception – from giving Pittsburgh its first loss of the year. It obviously won’t be easy, even in the event NSC managed to keep a clean sheet.
“The Eastern Conference is much more resilient [defensively] and different than the West,” said Nashville SC captain, midfielder Michael Reed. “How we both defend is very organized. This will be a chess match with how it will play out. The first games of the season are always tricky. Now that we have settled in, it will be battle of wits and character.”
If I said you have a guy on Nashville SC’s roster who has scored three times against Bob Lilley teams, is that somebody you’d want in your lineup? Brandon Allen scored away against Rochester last year, and twice in the 2016 playoffs (once on a penalty), both in draws (his New York Red Bulls II team would go on to win that contest after extra time and a penalty shootout, too).
That’s not the only type of familiarity Nashville SC has with Pittsburgh: midfielder Taylor Washington played his home games in Highmark Stadium last year, so he’s familiar with the grounds and some of the players on the team, no doubt. Ryan James played for the Rochester Rhinos (Bob Lilley’s 2017 side), so he knows the style of play and even more of the personnel than Washington does.
“Every game you get an opportunity to play again is very exciting to me,” James said. “It will be great to see some old teammates and coaches, but to me every game is important and we will come with the mentality to win.”
It remains to be seen exactly how it will all play out, of course, but I’ll take the new version of NSC – with the 4-4-2 formation as opposed to the comparatively-toothless 5-3-2 we saw to begin the season – to be improved in the rematch.
Projected lineups
I think we’ll see a lot of what we’ve been seeing from both teams:
I have Allen, James, and Winn in the starting lineup for the reasons stated (or alluded to) above. I project the substitutions to be Ropapa Mensah (for Allen), Matt LaGrassa (for Winn), and a mystery third one – maybe Kimura late, depending on game status.
Predictions
I’m highly tempted to pick a Nashville SC win. Will I do it?
- Allen gets his first league goal for Nashville SC. He’s scored against Bob Lilley teams (not always easy to do!) in the past, and obviously has a knack for scoring in general. He gets replaced by Mensah around the 60th minute for a burst of speed against tired Pittsburgh legs, a bit more hold-up play for a team that will want to maintain some semblance of offense while keeping more numbers behind the ball, and maybe a chance to score?
- The Riverhounds’ compact defensive shape proves hard to crack. Nashville wings a lot of crosses, just like they did in the first matchup between these teams, and Pittsburgh does a better job than Charleston did just a couple days ago in making those look fairly routine, rather than threatening.
- Van Caeyezeele is (to my annoyance) the goal-scorer for Pittsburgh. I thin kit probably comes on a set piece.
- There’s quite a bit of what one might call “boring play” throughout the course of the game. Others might call it “Lilleyball.” It’s not quite a bunker-counter mentality, but it’s closer to that than “let’s go out and try to score.”
- Neither team is able to find a winner (but I think Nashville is more likely than Pittsburgh if one does).
The game ends in a 1-1 draw. This Nashville team will be the second-best (maybe best, on current form) Pittsburgh has hosted this year, so while their home record looks pretty impressive, it – like their general results – hasn’t had to deal with a whole lot of tests. Still, until I see some ruthlessness out of Nashville, I’m assuming they’re content to settle for a draw on the road, and they play a bit of Lilleyball themselves, with neither side mounting a serious threat late.
Club and Country 