USL power ratings: May 28, 2018

Louisville’s resounding road win returns the Boys in Purple to top of the East, and Real Monarchs maintain their stranglehold on the West, despite their first intra-conference loss. There’s plenty of other shakeup across the USL. Don’t forget to follow the site on Twitter and Facebook for all the content on USL, US Soccer, and Nashville SC.

USL East Power Rankings:

1. Louisville City 3.06 (+1)
2. FC Cincinnati 2.90 (-1)
3. Nashville SC 2.49 (+1)
4. Charleston Battery 2.37 (+1)
5. Indy Eleven 2.29 (-2)
6. Pittsburgh Riverhounds 1.95 (+1)
7. Bethlehem Steel 1.94 (-1)
8. Charlotte Independence 1.87
9. Ottawa Fury 1.72 (+3)
10. Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.70 (-1)
11. New York Red Bulls II 1.69
12. Penn FC 1.43 (+1)
13. Richmond Kickers 1.43 (-3)
14. North Carolina FC 1.38 (+1)
15. Atlanta United 2 1.21 (-1)
16. Toronto FC II 0.24

 

Louisville went into Nippert and comfortably beat FC Cincinnati, returning the Boys in Purple to what feels like their rightful spot atop the East (though there are some other contenders there).

The group that seems highly likely to make the playoffs continues to be cemented: Louisville, Cincinnati, Indy, Nashville, and Charleston (with the Battery’s unbeaten run putting them solidly into that group, whereas they were on the fringe of it before). Pittsburgh almost certainly belongs there as well, and even though they appear to be able level with Bethlehem at this point, the Steel’s results are a little more volatile than the steadiness we’ve seen from the Hounds.

I’m also skeptical of Charlotte, which has decent results (17 points from 10 games), but has mostly achieved that by beating up on the worst teams in the East – their wins came against Toronto (twice), Richmond, Ottawa, and (oddly) FC Cincinnati. We’ll see when the schedules equalize a bit if they can do more than beat the team’s they’re supposed to. They’re a more extreme version of Pittsburgh to me (the Hounds have actually played a slightly easier schedule, but don’t have things like “multi-goal loss to NCFC” on the resume, either).

The story lately has become Ottawa Fury, whose run of form has catapulted them way up the power ratings into ninth – just three weeks after they were practically indistinguishable from Toronto at the tail end of the East. There’s enough noise outside of the top six or so that plenty can still change going forward.

USL West Power Rankings

1. Real Monarchs 3.69
2. Portland Timbers 2 2.53 (+4)
3. Sacramento Republic 2.49 (-1)
4. Swope Park Rangers 2.38 (+1)
5. Orange County SC 2.35 (-1)
6. Phoenix Rising 2.31 (-3)
7. Reno 1868 1.83 (+3)
8. Colorado Springs 1.69 (+3)
9. St. Louis FC 1.57
10. San Antonio FC 1.56 (-2)
11. Las Vegas Lights 1.47 (-4)
12. Seattle Sounders 2 1.28 (+2)
13. Rio Grande Valley 1.26
14. Fresno FC 1.19 (-2)
15. LA Galaxy II 1.10 (+1)
16. Tulsa Rouchnecks 0.90 (-1)
17. OKC Energy 0.83

Real Monarchs took their first loss in the conference (since there’s so little interplay between the conferences, I’m not including their previous loss, to Tampa Bay Rowdies, in the ratings), but still remain comfortably ahead of the pack.

The team that beat them, Portland Timbers 2, is the fast-rising side in the West. They’re now at No. 2, and they were in 13th just four weeks ago. Is it a flash in the pan or a sign that their weak start to the year will be easily overcome? Beating Monarchs definitely gives me confidence that they’re here to stay.

The tiers in the West are even more clearly defined – with large gaps between them – than the ones in the East. The top six teams are a solid cohort together (with Real well ahead of their compatriots, though Timbers 2 perhaps on the path to joining them with a gap ahead of the other four).

Heading in the opposite direction from Portland are Las Vegas Lights and San Antonio – with Lights dropping even more precipitously after starting the year pretty high. Reno, Colorado Springs, St. Louis, San Antonio, and Las Vegas will probably be in the positions to battle for those last two playoff spots if current form holds. LAGII has moved up to join that tier behind them, with Tulsa and OKC bringing up the rear.

Methodology note: No home/away or goals for/against numbers are included in the rankings. It’s strictly points per game multiplied by a strength of schedule component (opponents’ points per game, excluding games against the team of interest).